Long Run Update Fears about AI-driven job losses are overdone A number of AI-linked redundancies have hit the headlines recently, reigniting fears that the adoption of AI will lead to a surge in unemployment. We continue to think that fears of a big long-term... 30th June 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Oil price risk to inflation, infrastructure spending hype With UK inflation still some way above the 2.0% target, it probably wouldn’t require the conflict in the Middle East to cause a leap in the oil price all the way to $130-150 per barrel to prompt the... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA Outlook: Conflict clouds the outlook The Israel-Iran conflict creates significant uncertainty over the outlook. Our working assumption is that it eases relatively soon, in which case economic growth across the region should pick up. But... 19th June 2025 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Israel-Iran fears, Red Sea investment, Saudi Q1 GDP Worries of an imminent Israeli strike on Iran and/or its proxies drove a jump in oil prices on Wednesday, but the fallout for the oil market and, in turn, the Gulf economies should be limited... 12th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Focus CBDCs: evolution, not revolution Many central banks, especially in DMs, appear unconvinced about the need for retail central bank digital currencies CBDCs (rCBDCs) and so a big revolution in the monetary system seems unlikely. There... 5th June 2025 · 19 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: New GDP forecasts, long-run rankings, RBI preview In light of the strong Q1 data, we've revised up our GDP growth forecast for India for 2025. Into next week, with inflation at a multi-year low, the RBI looks set to continue its easing cycle. 30th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus How will Australia weather the China slowdown? Although the détente in the trade war may provide some respite to the Chinese economy in the near term, we remain pessimistic about its longer run prospects. The slowdown in China will undoubtedly... 27th May 2025 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA budget, SARB to cut, Transnet, Ramaphosa-Trump South Africa’s finance minister appears to have succeeded – at the third time of asking – at delivering a 2025 Budget that will make it through parliament. But it seems almost certain that tensions... 23rd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Expansion & integration: the future of EU enlargement The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but accession progress is likely to be slower than many expect. While some candidate countries stand a good... 20th May 2025 · 32 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: EU reset + migration policy = no change to GDP growth The upcoming UK-EU reset may boost the UK’s long-term economic growth rate by something like 0.1%. But the government’s new migration policies may reduce it by something like 0.1%. So what the... 16th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump’s trip tips the Gulf towards the US President Trump’s visit to the Gulf has led to a raft of deals, totalling nearly $1trn, with more likely in the offing. While Saudi Arabia’s ‘security for oil’ pact that underpinned strong relations... 15th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro’s share of global FX reserves set to rise? Recent actions by the Trump administration have raised doubts about the dollar’s safe-haven credentials, and could contribute to a further decline in its share of global FX reserves. At the same time... 13th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would it take for Saudi to do a U-turn on oil policy? Saudi Arabia has shifted back towards an oil policy of aggressively raising oil output to recapture market share and the Kingdom’s strong balance sheet means that it can “live with a prolonged period... 8th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia's soaring gold exports won’t prevent mining demise Around half of the recent surge in gold exports reflects soaring prices. While the latter may encourage mining firms to expand output, it will probably take years for gold production to return to its... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
