Africa Economics Update

How a fiscal rule would help South Africa

There’s growing talk that South Africa’s government could introduce a fiscal rule at this week’s Budget. If so, this would strengthen fiscal credibility and help to lock-in the recent falls in local...

· 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

Brazil’s pension problem rears its head again

There’s a growing acknowledgement that Brazil’s 2019 pension reform didn’t go far enough to ease fiscal pressures from the social security system. Indeed, Brazil is likely to see one of the largest...

· 13 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

US-Iran, Kuwait’s budget, Saudi inflation, AI in the Gulf

Unless Iran makes major concessions to reach a new nuclear deal with the US, the threat of US military intervention will rise - particularly given the build-up of forces in the region. Elsewhere...

· 6 mins read

Long Run Economic Outlook

US and Asia to lead the AI decade

Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in...

· 1 hr, 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Does Hungary need a US financial backstop?

Marcio Rubio’s comments this week that the US might provide financial support to Hungary if needed seems to have been welcomed by local financial markets. Hungary’s public finances are not in good...

· 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China unlikely to accelerate sales of dollar assets

Chinese regulators have reportedly asked banks to curb their exposure to US Treasuries. While Chinese banks' holdings of dollar-denominated bonds have decreased over the past year, they've largely...

· 4 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Bundesbank embracing joint borrowing?

Comments by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel this week suggest the German central bank has abandoned its long-standing opposition to EU joint borrowing. But while we might see some more jointly...

· 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (February 2026)

Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades...

· 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Lower oil prices to cause Saudi bond spreads to widen

If oil prices fall back as we expect, Saudi Arabia’s government is likely to run large budget deficits and see a sharper rise in the public debt ratio than is widely anticipated. The strength of the...

· 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

China-Panama rupture, precious metals & Lat Am

The Panamanian Supreme Court’s decision to annul the licences that allowed a Hong Kong based firm to operate in the Panama Canal has been met with a backlash from China. While it’s not clear if China...

· 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

Will Lula go on a pre-election spending spree?

The balance of probabilities is tilted towards Brazil avoiding major additional pre-election fiscal loosening (and the resulting backlash in financial markets). As a result, we think the Selic rate...

· 14 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Analysing public debt sustainability in the euro-zone

Among the largest euro-zone countries, public debt looks most worrying in France because it is on an upward trajectory and Italy because it is likely to remain very high. Government debt is also set...

· 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Currency boost, rate meetings, Costa Rica votes

Latin American economies stand out as potential beneficiaries of the fall in the dollar this week. A the margin, it will help to bring down inflation and may make central banks more confident about...

· 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jan. 2026)

Our proprietary EM financial risk indicators show that vulnerabilities are becoming increasingly isolated, with the number of countries at “high risk” of a crisis now at multi-year lows. Sovereign...

· 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia: a fiscal health check

A dramatic late-year cut to spending helped Russia’s government meet its deficit target of 2.6% of GDP last year. This does not signal that fiscal strains are forcing President Putin to scale back the...

· 4 mins read