Africa Economics Update South Africa’s GDP upgrade flatters economic challenges The revisions to South Africa’s historic GDP data mean the economy is now 5% larger, at $450bn, than previously estimated, which lowers headline public finance ratios. However, this will not change... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s credit risk, regional slowdown, Brazil votes The rise in Argentina’s country risk premium continued this week and seems to reflect concerns about Milei’s re-election prospects next year. The country’s recent history provides reasons to think... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s budget, spillover risks from France Hungary’s 2027 budget delivered a positive surprise for investors, although we harbour doubts about whether the government can meet the fiscal criteria for euro adoption by 2030. Elsewhere, the spike... 23rd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: fiscal consolidation remains on track South Africa’s finance minister announced in today’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) that the revenue windfall had persisted, allowing him to cover higher debt servicing costs and lift non... 21st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why Brazil and South Africa could do with new fiscal rules New fiscal rules mooted in Brazil and South Africa could, if implemented, make significant inroads into their public debt problems by reducing high borrowing costs. But the devil will lie in the... 20th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Parsing Banxico’s minutes, Brazil’s pension debate The dovish minutes to the last Banxico meeting may have been aimed at ramming home the point that policymakers won’t mechanically follow the Fed in raising rates. But in any case, the fall in the peso... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa MTBPS, Nigeria’s inflation surprise South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is likely to reaffirm the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline at Wednesday’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), although fading... 16th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update French OATs will remain Euro-zone’s problem child We think the selloff in French OATs has further to run over the coming year and spreads could conceivably rise much further, perhaps to around 200bp, given that attempts to put France’s public... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2026) EM growth appears to have weakened in Q3 but we think it will accelerate this quarter. Inflation is set to rise further and, with policymakers turning cautious, we have pencilled in further rate hikes... 14th October 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s debt burden to remain on a downwards path Egypt’s public finances still look poor on the surface, but there are reasons to think that the public debt burden will decline over the coming years. That will have positive spillover effects... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s upcoming budget will test the bond rally Hungary’s government will announce its long-awaited fiscal review this month, and we expect a budget deficit projection around 5.5% of GDP for 2027, down from a shortfall of more than 7.0% this year... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal tightening, Romania under pressure The details of Russia’s 2027 budget point towards fiscal austerity, but it’s hard to view this as credible given spending pressures, particularly for the military. So there’s little reason to expect a... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa public debt ratio is about to peak South Africa’s government debt-to-GDP ratio should peak this year, and we think the government will use the Medium-Term Budget Statement (MTBPS) later this month to reaffirm its fiscal discipline... 1st October 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What to make of Colombia’s turn to the IMF While Colombia isn’t facing the balance of payments strains that an IMF program is designed to tackle, an agreement with the Fund – as the government seems to be aiming for – could make austerity... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight EM credit spreads mask lingering fiscal risks Measures of EM fiscal risk premia are very low, which partly reflects genuine policy improvements in some high-risk economies. But a few countries such as Mozambique and Tunisia still face the risk of... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
