Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Kenya’s finance scramble, South Africa CPI and rates Kenya’s efforts to deal with its fiscal problems may alleviate short-term pressures, but we remain concerned that the path to avoiding sovereign default in the medium term remains narrow. Elsewhere... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Abdalla stays on as rate decision looms, PIF Annual Report Hassan Abdalla’s term as Egypt’s central bank governor was renewed this week which bodes well for the ongoing shift to macro orthodoxy and broader structural reform. First up on his agenda will be... 21st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Bonds Focus The causes and consequences of waning demand for very-long-dated bonds Very-long-dated government bonds have been under serious pressure at times this year. Demand from traditional sources seems to have waned, and we doubt it’s coming back. In some cases, governments... 19th August 2025 · 28 mins read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm debt risks easing, but still some pockets of concern Sovereign debt risks across Latin America have eased in the past year or so but there are still important nuances at a country level. Public finance risks in Brazil and Colombia are most concerning... 19th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Can Bolivia’s next president solve the macro mess? Bolivians head to the polls on 17 th August with the economy at high risk of a currency crisis. Whatever the outcome, a large currency depreciation is looking likely before long. A win for one of the... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus “Euro safe assets” are a pipe dream Policymakers’ hopes of creating a new euro “safe asset” are likely to be unfulfilled for many years to come. The supply of safe bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions will rise in... 12th August 2025 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s remittance drop, Pemex, Brazil adapts to tariffs The large drop in remittances to Mexico (in dollar terms) in June suggests that the Trump administration’s crackdown on undocumented migrants is starting to have an economic impact south of the border... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Zambia IMF money, Lower West African cocoa harvests Zambia secured another disbursement from the IMF this week and, given severe fiscal strains, it seems most likely that policymakers will seek a successor programme when the current one ends in October... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi’s austere turn, CBE Monetary Policy Report takeaways Q2 budget figures show that Saudi Arabia's deficit is on track to be larger than the full-year projections set out in the Budget. Officials are turning to fiscal consolidation (via cuts to capital... 7th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: bright prospects, stormy politics Côte d’Ivoire’s economic fortunes appear good, and we expect growth to accelerate, underpinned by strong cocoa, oil and gold exports. However, the country’s sizeable sovereign debt servicing costs and... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to cope with higher US tariffs. And better terms of trade for most countries mean that painful currency adjustments are unlikely. That alongside lower... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Observations from the surge in EM FX bond issuance The continued rise in EM sovereign FX debt sales this year suggests that EM governments have accepted the need to issue at higher yields, but are doing so at shorter maturities than in the past. And... 29th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Financial lifeline for Pemex, busy week for central banks In a busy week for central banks, we expect policymakers in Chile and Colombia to resume their easing cycle and Copom to leave its policy rate unchanged. But the overarching picture in Latin America... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA interest rate cuts, Nigeria tax reform The weak inflation reading for June out of South Africa this week strengthens the case for the SARB to cut interest rates on Thursday. And further out we think that rates will be lowered by more than... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
