Chief Economist's Note Supply shocks and the bond market feedback loop The rise in the price of oil to over $100 per barrel is the last thing central banks across the advanced economies want to see. The European Central Bank met last week and raised interest rates by 25... 14th September 2026
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account deteriorates, Senegal’s debt problem Q2 data this week showed the energy shock is putting South Africa’s current account position under strain, and with oil prices back above $100pb, we expect that external pressure to persist in the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran strikes, bond sales, Xi in Cairo There are growing signs that the US blockade is squeezing Iran’s economy, but US and Iranian strikes this week highlight the challenge of securing a resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the... 3rd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia: risk of currency, sovereign debt crises growing Tunisia’s fragile external position has deteriorated further since the onset of the Iran war and the dinar appears increasingly overvalued. Officials have tightened access to foreign currency in a bid... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Is Brazil facing a corporate debt crisis? A growing number of Brazilian companies are seeking to restructure their debts, and the backdrop of slowing growth and high interest rates will probably cause a further rise in corporate defaults... 20th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2026) Recently released data support our view that emerging markets will – the Gulf economies aside – ride out the energy shock pretty well. At the same time, inflation pressures look contained and are... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Private credit & AI debt fears miss the bigger picture While private credit and debt-financing of AI investment dominate the headlines about vulnerabilities surrounding corporate debt, the big picture is that business finances are in a healthy state... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Why are Brazil’s government borrowing costs so high? Media reports point to renewed scrutiny in Brazil over whether the central bank’s widely watched economic survey is pushing up public sector borrowing costs. But the key issue is that Brazil’s real... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Hormuz closure pushing Bahrain to the brink The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to create further strains in Bahrain’s balance of payments. FX reserves provide very limited capacity to sustain the dollar peg and roll over... 3rd August 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Economic growth in the region has been resilient in the face of the energy shock, and we think growth will accelerate from here. Although inflation rose last month, most central banks will be able to... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The macro implications of Lat Am’s shift to the right The political shift to the right in Latin America is likely to lead to a stronger geopolitical alignment with the US and economic policies that reduce country risk premia. Economic reforms may allow... 29th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (July 2026) The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia and Romania aside) and inflation falling below central banks’... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s large budget deficit is a growing risk The Polish government’s budget deficit, of ~7% of GDP, isn’t going to trigger near-term sovereign debt problems. But there’s little chance of the deficit narrowing significantly in the coming years... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2026) The renewed US-Iran attacks and closure of the Strait of Hormuz will, if sustained, prolong recessions in the Gulf economies and weigh on activity in energy-importing EMs. But continued strong demand... 21st July 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan caught in the crosshairs Iranian attacks have increasingly targeted Jordan and are likely to set back the economy’s recovery from a decade of negative spillovers caused by the civil war in Syria. Jordan’s balance of payments... 20th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How quickly might Indonesia’s public debt rise? Indonesia is likely to break its 3% of GDP legal ceiling for the fiscal deficit this year. Still, given the low public debt level today, so long as the deficit stayed close to this level it would take... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
