Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (May '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The decision by OPEC+ to follow up May’s faster rise in oil production with a... 15th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone debt dynamics: no longer core vs periphery Most euro-zone governments look set to continue running large budget deficits in the coming years. This will support aggregate demand and is a key reason why ECB interest rates will stay higher than... 14th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro’s share of global FX reserves set to rise? Recent actions by the Trump administration have raised doubts about the dollar’s safe-haven credentials, and could contribute to a further decline in its share of global FX reserves. At the same time... 13th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Is the current optimism about Europe justified? There has been an increase in optimism about the EU in recent months as it has been forced to take more responsibility for its own security, has loosened fiscal policy and has benefited from having a... 12th May 2025 · 16 mins read
US Economics Update Should we fear a surge in US student loan default rates? Student loan default rates are set to soar and the government will soon begin collections against defaulted loans for the first time since the pandemic. This is unlikely to be a big drag on households... 8th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa 2025 Budget 3.0, Angola IMF loan? This week’s announcement that South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month sets the scene for a few more weeks of talks over spending restraint versus tax rises. We... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2025) Higher US import tariffs and softening expectations for global growth have caused large capital outflows from EMs. But our currency crisis risk indicators suggest that EMs are well placed to weather... 30th April 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No end to Colombia’s fiscal saga in sight The IMF’s decision to pause Colombia’s access to its flexible credit line is not particularly concerning given the country’s robust external position, but the Fund has shone the spotlight back onto... 28th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa VAT hike scrapped, Zambia debt talks South Africa’s 2025 budget took a vital step forward after the Treasury scrapped its proposed VAT hike this week. This, the DA's recommitment to the GNU and the weaker-than expected inflation figures... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s new budget, Saudi fiscal tightening & real estate Egypt’s draft FY2025/26 Budget reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal austerity which should put the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downwards path. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia’s government... 24th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: ECB; pharma tariff front-running; France’s budget This week brought some evidence that front-running US tariffs boosted euro-zone industrial production in Q1, but this effect will of course be “transitory”. Meanwhile, statements from France’s finance... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s new exchange rate regime, Noboa’s victory The smaller-than-expected fall in the Argentinian peso following the easing of capital controls suggests that the move has released pent-up hard currency flows back into the economy. Our sense is that... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update IMF & World Bank meet in Trump’s shadow The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF take place next week under the cloud not just of US trade protectionism but also the Trump administration’s seeming hostility towards multilateral... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain’s fiscal plan may not negate need for Gulf support The recently-announced fiscal plan in Bahrain is a welcome shift towards fiscal consolidation, but there’s a high risk of slippage and the public debt dynamics are alarming. Although other Gulf states... 14th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s IMF deal #23, tariff relief, Hegseth in Panama One key feature of Argentina's latest IMF deal – which the Fund's Board is set to vote on today – is likely to be a shift towards a more flexible exchange rate and an easing of capital controls. While... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil’s slide and what it means for the Gulf President Trump’s tariffs, retaliation by China, and OPEC+’s decision to accelerate the pace of oil output increases have caused the price of Brent crude to tumble to its lowest level in four years... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
