Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2025) Higher US import tariffs and softening expectations for global growth have caused large capital outflows from EMs. But our currency crisis risk indicators suggest that EMs are well placed to weather... 30th April 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No end to Colombia’s fiscal saga in sight The IMF’s decision to pause Colombia’s access to its flexible credit line is not particularly concerning given the country’s robust external position, but the Fund has shone the spotlight back onto... 28th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa VAT hike scrapped, Zambia debt talks South Africa’s 2025 budget took a vital step forward after the Treasury scrapped its proposed VAT hike this week. This, the DA's recommitment to the GNU and the weaker-than expected inflation figures... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s new budget, Saudi fiscal tightening & real estate Egypt’s draft FY2025/26 Budget reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal austerity which should put the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downwards path. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia’s government... 24th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: ECB; pharma tariff front-running; France’s budget This week brought some evidence that front-running US tariffs boosted euro-zone industrial production in Q1, but this effect will of course be “transitory”. Meanwhile, statements from France’s finance... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s new exchange rate regime, Noboa’s victory The smaller-than-expected fall in the Argentinian peso following the easing of capital controls suggests that the move has released pent-up hard currency flows back into the economy. Our sense is that... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update IMF & World Bank meet in Trump’s shadow The Spring Meetings of the World Bank and IMF take place next week under the cloud not just of US trade protectionism but also the Trump administration’s seeming hostility towards multilateral... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain’s fiscal plan may not negate need for Gulf support The recently-announced fiscal plan in Bahrain is a welcome shift towards fiscal consolidation, but there’s a high risk of slippage and the public debt dynamics are alarming. Although other Gulf states... 14th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s IMF deal #23, tariff relief, Hegseth in Panama One key feature of Argentina's latest IMF deal – which the Fund's Board is set to vote on today – is likely to be a shift towards a more flexible exchange rate and an easing of capital controls. While... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil’s slide and what it means for the Gulf President Trump’s tariffs, retaliation by China, and OPEC+’s decision to accelerate the pace of oil output increases have caused the price of Brent crude to tumble to its lowest level in four years... 4th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan’s balance sheet strains back in the spotlight Spillovers from the war in Gaza and threats of cuts to foreign assistance from the US have thrown the spotlight onto Jordan’s shaky balance of payments and public finances. For now, we think that the... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: budget deficit gives no room to cushion tariff hit The blowout in Mexico’s budget deficit to its largest level since the 1980s last year means that the government has little scope to offset the hit to the economy from US tariffs. There’ll probably be... 31st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 31st March 2025 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s budget laid out, Saudi spending cuts Egypt’s FY2025/26 Budget outlined that the overall budget deficit will remain large, but that’s due to high interest payments. The government is committed to continuing to run a large primary surplus... 27th March 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Fiscal Event Response: Unfinished fiscal business Despite saying the “world is changing”, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, today just tinkered with fiscal policy. This left the impression that bigger changes lie ahead. Indeed, the pressure to raise... 26th March 2025 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Kuwait debt law, Morocco interest rates, ceasefire ends Kuwait’s new public debt law is likely to be passed soon and should allow for a looser fiscal stance, something that shouldn’t raise any concerns given the debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 5%. Elsewhere... 20th March 2025 · 6 mins read
