Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Colombia’s fiscal plans, Mexican exports The Colombian government’s fiscal plans due to be released later today are likely to see a much less ambitious budget deficit target and a suspension of the fiscal rule, which will raise further... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: US protectionism just one of many challenges Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region... 12th June 2025 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal mess to push bond spreads wider Colombia’s fiscal problems have returned to the spotlight amid rumours that the government will suspend the fiscal rule. This has triggered a sell-off in the bond market, but it doesn’t look like the... 10th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Reflections on recent elections Recent presidential elections in Poland, Romania and Korea have led to significant moves in their financial markets. But from a macro perspective, what also matters is the composition of the... 10th June 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus Risk of US fiscal crisis rising The Federal debt is undoubtedly on an unsustainable path. The debt burden is already close to 100% of GDP and, with the budget deficit likely to remain close to 6% of GDP for the foreseeable future... 9th June 2025 · 20 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Korea afford post-election stimulus? President Lee’s pledge to provide fiscal stimulus would, if implemented, provide a much-needed lift to Korea’s economy. The country’s public finances could easily accommodate a temporary rise in... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s judicial election, Argentina’s bond sale Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday to elect almost 900 federal judicial positions and thousands of positions at the local level in a major overhaul of the country's judiciary that has raised... 30th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Disagreement at the ECB but more cuts to come Data released this week – and Donald Trump’s latest threat of imposing a 50% tariff on imports from the EU – reinforce our view that the ECB will cut interest rates in June and loosen policy further... 23rd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Fiscal stimulus won’t fix Germany’s economy Germany’s historic shift to looser fiscal policy will give the economy a boost over the next couple of years, but we think growth will then slow, deindustrialisation will continue, and real income... 23rd May 2025 · 16 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Greek fiscal comparison is wide of the mark PM Ishiba this week rebuffed calls for tax cuts ahead of July’s Upper House election by arguing that Japan’s fiscal situation is worse than Greece’s. Even though Japan’s government debt is higher... 23rd May 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we be worried about the UAE’s credit boom? Credit growth in the UAE has boomed, fuelling a sharp rise in property prices, particularly in Dubai. Prices are now at risk of a correction which, in the past, has fed into banking and debt worries... 20th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (May '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The decision by OPEC+ to follow up May’s faster rise in oil production with a... 15th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone debt dynamics: no longer core vs periphery Most euro-zone governments look set to continue running large budget deficits in the coming years. This will support aggregate demand and is a key reason why ECB interest rates will stay higher than... 14th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro’s share of global FX reserves set to rise? Recent actions by the Trump administration have raised doubts about the dollar’s safe-haven credentials, and could contribute to a further decline in its share of global FX reserves. At the same time... 13th May 2025 · 5 mins read
