Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Counting the cost of crime in Latin America Growing public concerns about high crime levels and the apparent success of El Salvador in reducing levels of violence are making law and order a key issue in Latin America’s busy electoral calendar... 16th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be... 10th September 2025 · 21 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: deficit breach could send bond spreads wider Concerns that Indonesia’s government will breach it’s 3% of GDP budget deficit rule have only grown after the replacement of respected Finance Minister Sri Mulyani. While the fiscal risk premium in... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Can Nigeria put its public finances on a stable footing? Nigeria policy shift has led to success in monetary policy reform and a stronger balance of payments position. But reforms have so far fallen short is reining in the large budget deficit. While non... 9th September 2025 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi debt issuances & housing reforms We suspect that the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will result in a decision to keep oil production unchanged in October, rather than raise production further. But the risks to oil prices are still skewed to... 4th September 2025 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We think economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will weather US tariffs relatively well. Indeed, improved terms of trade (for most) and lower inflation and interest rates should support a modest pick-up... 27th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Kenya’s finance scramble, South Africa CPI and rates Kenya’s efforts to deal with its fiscal problems may alleviate short-term pressures, but we remain concerned that the path to avoiding sovereign default in the medium term remains narrow. Elsewhere... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Abdalla stays on as rate decision looms, PIF Annual Report Hassan Abdalla’s term as Egypt’s central bank governor was renewed this week which bodes well for the ongoing shift to macro orthodoxy and broader structural reform. First up on his agenda will be... 21st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Bonds Focus The causes and consequences of waning demand for very long-dated bonds Very long-dated government bonds have been under serious pressure at times this year. Demand from traditional sources seems to have waned, and we doubt it’s coming back. In some cases, governments... 19th August 2025 · 28 mins read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm debt risks easing, but still some pockets of concern Sovereign debt risks across Latin America have eased in the past year or so but there are still important nuances at a country level. Public finance risks in Brazil and Colombia are most concerning... 19th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Can Bolivia’s next president solve the macro mess? Bolivians head to the polls on 17 th August with the economy at high risk of a currency crisis. Whatever the outcome, a large currency depreciation is looking likely before long. A win for one of the... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus “Euro safe assets” are a pipe dream Policymakers’ hopes of creating a new euro “safe asset” are likely to be unfulfilled for many years to come. The supply of safe bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions will rise in... 12th August 2025 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s remittance drop, Pemex, Brazil adapts to tariffs The large drop in remittances to Mexico (in dollar terms) in June suggests that the Trump administration’s crackdown on undocumented migrants is starting to have an economic impact south of the border... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
