Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi borrowing plan, Bahrain’s austerity steps, KSA opens up

Saudi Arabia kicked off 2026 with its first debt issuance of the year. Like last year, we think borrowing will exceed the authorities' plans as lower oil prices lead to a wider budget deficit and...

8th January 2026 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi back in the US camp, for now

Improved relations between Saudi Arabia and the US since President Trump returned to office, as well as recent agreements in the areas of AI-related technologies and defence, mean that we are shifting...

6th January 2026 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Dec. 2025)

December’s batch of PMIs suggested that non-oil sectors in the Gulf softened at the end of last year and we expect this continue over the course of 2026. And while Egypt’s PMI fell back, it continued...

6th January 2026 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Oil prices, Morocco inflation-targeting, Saudi inflation

Brent crude dropped to its lowest level since early 2021 this week, and we think that this trend will persist in 2026. This is not a major concern for the Gulf economies' balance sheets, but it...

18th December 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate dropped to a nine-month low of 1.9% y/y in November and we expect it to ease further, and potentially into deflationary territory, over 2026-27.

15th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Does Egypt need the IMF anyway? Oman gets an upgrade

Egypt’s IMF review has coincided with a fresh impetus to jumpstart the lagging privatisation programme. But compared to just a couple of years ago, Egypt’s improving balance of payments position and...

11th December 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s non-oil economy faces growing headwinds in 2026

The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Dec. ’25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our key calls and forecasts to reflect the latest regional developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest...

9th December 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s bumper PMI, Saudi Budget, MENA 2026 Outlook

November’s batch of PMIs suggest that growth strengthened in the region last month, particularly in Egypt where the survey hit its highest level (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2015...

4th December 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Strengthening growth and shifting alignments

The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest pace of GDP growth (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2011 next year. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s...

4th December 2025 · 22 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MbS’s Washington trip tips the balance in US’s favour

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the US this week secured security, nuclear, mineral, and AI deals which will pull the Kingdom back from China’s sphere of influence towards the US.

20th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our latest forecasts and calls to reflect key developments across the region. We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record very...

20th November 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Shifting geopolitical allegiances, IMF to visit Egypt

The meeting between Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Trump next week is widely expected to see the announcement of a new security deal and the US’s partnership in the...

13th November 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct. 2025)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 2.2% y/y in October, remaining weak by other EM and Gulf standards, and we expect it to stay subdued as we head into 2026.

13th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s worsening twin deficits reinforce need for austerity

Saudi Arabia’s twin budget and current account deficits have widened on the back of low oil export receipts and this trend is likely to continue over the coming quarters. While the adjustment to low...

5th November 2025 · 5 mins read