Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi better placed to smooth non-oil slowdown The most frequent question we received from clients during recent meetings in the Gulf was whether lower oil prices would lead to a sharp slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector akin to that in 2014... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA PMIs: a soft year ahead for Gulf non-oil sectors May’s batch of PMIs across the Gulf point to a softer Q2 for non-oil sectors and the backdrop of lower oil prices will likely result in less fiscal support and weaker confidence that add to the... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: GCC-ASEAN-China summit, Saudi’s shrinking trade surplus The GCC-ASEAN-China summit this week contained a lot of platitudes about boosting trade and investment between China and the Gulf. But it doesn’t change our view that the Gulf’s geopolitical alignment... 29th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Slowdown in Saudi’s non-oil sector only just starting The latest low-profile data suggest that Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy has started to lose momentum. And with the shift to a more aggressive oil output policy causing oil prices to fall, further... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US and China try to shift the fracturing map The flurry of diplomatic activity by both the US and China this week underscores that geopolitical alliances in parts of the emerging world are fluid. We suspect that most countries in Latin America... 16th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump’s trip tips the Gulf towards the US President Trump’s visit to the Gulf has led to a raft of deals, totalling nearly $1trn, with more likely in the offing. While Saudi Arabia’s ‘security for oil’ pact that underpinned strong relations... 15th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (May '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The decision by OPEC+ to follow up May’s faster rise in oil production with a... 15th May 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 2.3% y/y in April, its joint fastest pace in nearly two years. We think that inflation will hover around the 2.0-2.5% y/y range for much of this... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Trump arrives in a much-changed Middle East Donald Trump has arrived in the Middle East and changes in the power and influence of the region’s actors mean that he will find a very different region to the one during his last visit in 2017. Iran... 13th May 2025 · 14 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: What next for OPEC+ policy?; EU ban on Russian gas Following the recent decision by OPEC+ to raise output more aggressively than it originally outlined, we now expect the group to unwind the remaining ~3mn bpd of voluntary output cuts at a decent clip... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: OPEC+ goes bold, Trump heads to the Gulf OPEC+’s decision to speed up the pace of oil output increases will help the Gulf members to recapture market share over the next few years, while also providing a boost to headline GDP growth... 8th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would it take for Saudi to do a U-turn on oil policy? Saudi Arabia has shifted back towards an oil policy of aggressively raising oil output to recapture market share and the Kingdom’s strong balance sheet means that it can “live with a prolonged period... 8th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update New (lower) oil price forecasts Given the shift in OPEC+ policy over the weekend, the global oil market will, all else equal, be better supplied over the coming years than previously looked likely. Accordingly, having consistently... 6th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Saudi Arabia raises the oil market stakes Reports from Riyadh this week, which suggested that Saudi Arabia is losing patience with production cuts, have further clouded the outlook for oil supply. It’s possible that the message was intended... 2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The implications of a Saudi Arabia oil market pivot Oil prices have now fallen by about 18% since ‘Liberation Day’, and one could make the case for them being in oversold territory – particularly if US tariffs are rowed back further, as we expect. But... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy shift, Vision 2030 progress Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia may be preparing for a return to an oil policy in which it raises output more quickly in order to recapture market share. While that might lift oil revenues, it won't... 1st May 2025 · 6 mins read
