Deal to end the war edging closer?

Hopes for an end to the Iran war have grown (again) in recent days. But there are lots of points of contention that will arise during the 30-day negotiation period and divisions within the Iranian regime could yet scupper the talks. Meanwhile, data released this week showed that Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit widened to more than 7% of GDP in Q1, although for the time being the government can rely on local markets to finance its large shortfall. There was better economic news in Egypt where the tick down in inflation last month reinforces our view that rate hikes are unlikely.