Details of the latest US-Russian led peace plan to end the war in Ukraine suggest that Washington is willing to make significant concessions to Moscow in negotiations, but the proposal is likely to face major opposition from Ukraine and Europe. A peace deal favourable to Russia would likely hold back Ukraine’s reconstruction and mean that defence spending in Europe continues to rise over the coming years. Elsewhere, we have pushed back the timing at which we expect monetary easing to resume in Hungary, and the risks to our Israel GDP forecasts have shifted to the upside.
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