Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will office rents in Bucharest and Budapest continue to underperform? Having lagged over the past year, the improving economic backdrop should support office demand in Bucharest and Budapest in the coming few years. However, while we think high vacancy rates will limit... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Reflections on recent elections Recent presidential elections in Poland, Romania and Korea have led to significant moves in their financial markets. But from a macro perspective, what also matters is the composition of the... 10th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that pockets of the region are starting to feel the bite from US tariffs, but that overall regional GDP... 27th May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Expansion & integration: the future of EU enlargement The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but accession progress is likely to be slower than many expect. While some candidate countries stand a good... 20th May 2025 · 32 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania & Poland Presidential Election Results The unexpected victory for centrist candidate, Nicusor Dan, in the second round of Romania’s presidential election on Sunday marks a major comeback against the far-right, and will ease concerns about... 19th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) highlighted concerns with the uncertain political backdrop and recent pressure on the currency when leaving its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%. We now think... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania and Poland at crossroads The polls ahead of presidential elections in Romania and Poland this Sunday point to diverging political paths for the two largest economies in Central and Eastern Europe over the coming years. A... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE GDP (Q1 2025) The Q1 GDP data released in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) today confirmed that growth slowed across the region ahead of the introduction of US tariffs. That said, Poland’s relatively strong... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian leu: is this the start of a big depreciation? The strong lead for far-right candidate George Simion in Romania’s presidential election, and the collapse of the coalition government last week, led to the largest one-week fall in the leu since 2009... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania on the rocks after election re-run The strong showing for far-right nationalist, George Simion, in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled Presidential election on Sunday has deepened the country’s political crisis, and the fallout in... 9th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (1st Round) Far-right candidate George Simion emerged as the clear frontrunner in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled presidential election and is now the favourite to win the second round on 18 th May. His... 5th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Russia heading to recession? Romania election re-run The latest data out of Russia suggest that the economic slowdown we expected is happening more abruptly than we thought likely. A technical recession over the first half of this year is now a clear... 2nd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Five questions on Romania’s rescheduled election This Update answers five key questions on Romania’s rescheduled presidential election, the first round of which takes place on Sunday 4th May. A victory for far-right frontrunner George Simion would... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
