Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to pause its easing cycle today, leaving the policy rate at 6.50%, seems to reflect growing concern about the persistence of underlying inflationary... 4th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus... 26th September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Flooding in Central Europe, Israel’s new phase of war The flooding across Central Europe over the past week will likely weigh on activity in September, but we think that the economic impact will be relatively short-lived and won’t shift the monetary... 20th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation and fiscal risks simmering We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters... 17th September 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE easing cycles still likely to be slow from here While interest rate cuts by the ECB this week and the Fed next week, as well as the fall in oil prices, could set the stage for more monetary easing in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), we still think... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe & the mid-summer market turmoil Global financial markets have unwound some of the big moves from late last week and early this week, and we doubt the latest market gyrations will change the economic or policymaking outlook much in... 9th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) 7th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Current account deficits, MNB rate cut guidance Balance of payments data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week showed unexpected current account deficits in Poland and Czechia in May, but the big picture is that external positions are... 19th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data out of Emerging Europe suggest that economic growth in Central Europe... 18th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Romania’s central bank (NBR) started its easing cycle at today’s meeting with a 25bp rate cut, to 6.75%. But with inflation and fiscal risks still high, this is likely to be a slow and gradual cycle... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for... 28th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EDP won’t heal CEE’s fiscal fragilities The European Commission’s recommendation to open the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for breaching the EU’s fiscal rules won’t force a drastic change in... 19th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EV tariffs, European election results, May inflation The EU’s new tariffs on EV imports from China announced this week could provide a boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe by pushing Chinese carmakers to set up more factories in the region... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures... 13th June 2024 · 1 min read
