Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland-Ukraine dispute, Romania's fiscal reforms

Poland’s announcement this week that it would no longer supply weapons to Ukraine doesn't pose an immediate threat to Ukraine’s war effort, but cracks in support are clearly emerging across the region...

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 23)

Russia and Turkey had a strong first half to the year, but large policy tightening is likely to result in a sharp slowdown in 2024. Inflation pressures look set to keep building and further interest...

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE: interest rate squeeze likely to reverse soon

There’s a lot of uncertainty about how much impact monetary tightening has had in the global economy so far, but in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) the hit to households has already been significant...

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia-North Korea friendship, CEE external positions

President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un strengthened their relationship this week, but we doubt the discussions will yield any meaningful benefits for Russia's economy or materially boost...

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

CEE inflation falling, but a long way back to target

Sharp falls in inflation mean that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are on the cusp of a broad-based monetary loosening cycle. That said, we think that the legacy of the inflation...

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Gas price volatility, Romania’s fiscal slippage

The jump in wholesale European natural gas prices in the early part of this week doesn’t mean the energy crisis in the region is coming back to life. For economies in Central and Eastern Europe, it...

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 23)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Russia, Turkey and Israel had a strong first half to the year, but growth across...

Emerging Europe Economics Rapid Response

Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2023)

Q2 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally came in below expectations and suggest that the region continued to suffer the ill-effects from high inflation and interest rates last...

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Encouraging CEE inflation data, Turkey’s gold tariff

The July inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week suggests that our forecasts for interest rate cuts to arrive across the region over the rest of this year, and in early 2024...

Europe Commercial Property Update

Bucharest office rental surge could have further to run

Bucharest offices have been CEE’s best performing so far this year, as rent growth has accelerated rapidly. Although we expect growth to slow sharply from 2024, constrained supply of prime space and...

Emerging Europe Economics Rapid Response

Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its main policy rate on hold again today, at 7.00%, and we think that it will continue to leave rates unchanged over the rest of this year. In our view...

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE: net migration outflows to slow sharply this decade

Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have...

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Rate cuts approaching in CEE, retail downturn passing

Expectations for the start of monetary easing cycles in Poland and Czechia strengthened this week and the debate now is about whether or not central banks will cut interest rates at their next...

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE: net migration outflows to slow sharply this decade

Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced large and persistent net migration outflows in recent decades, but the tide has shifted in the past five years or so as outflows have...

Emerging Europe Economics Rapid Response

Economic Sentiment Indicators (July)