Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on Russia, Romania and Turkey. Monetary policy cycles are likely to follow different paths. The Czech central bank will continue to hike rates. The bias elsewhere is towards easing, but rate cutting cycles in Russia, Hungary and Israel will be on pause well into next year. In contrast, Turkey’s central bank is on the verge of restarting its easing cycle.
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