Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: All eyes on Alaska as Trump and Putin take centre stage The scheduled meeting between presidents Trump and Putin later today has focused attention on whether there will be any positive news to end the war in Ukraine, but developments over the course of... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation to stay strong, despite wage slowdown The recent slowdown in wage growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is a welcome development for central banks, but we don’t think it will ease much further, limiting how quickly services... 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, as expected, and its communications suggest a restart of the easing cycle remains some way off. We expect rates to... 8th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: CEE gets off (relatively) lightly, tougher talk on Russia The EU-US tariff deal this week confirms that Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will be subject to the milder end of Trump’s tariff policy, and the reduced tariff rates for motor vehicles are a notable... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (July) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP growth maintained a moderate pace, at 2.0-2.5% y/y, at the start of Q3. The prices components of the... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The EU-US trade agreement, which will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods exports to the... 29th July 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jul. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with... 22nd July 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal risks still simmering across CEE Measures of fiscal risk premia have generally eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but the region’s public debt dynamics remain a point of concern. Budget deficits... 17th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania inflation rebound, Trump’s Russia statement Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While the consensus view is... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM disinflation has further to run Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and... 10th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (July) The communications accompanying the decision by the National Bank of Romania to leave its policy rate on hold, at 6.50%, suggest policymakers are concerned about the inflationary impacts of upcoming... 8th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: NBP delivers dovish surprise, could the BoI be next? The 25bp cut by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week caught many – but not us – off guard, and we think that two further interest rate cuts lie in store over the rest of this year. Meanwhile... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania’s new government, Israel-Iran ceasefire The fiscal tightening measures announced by Romania’s new government, which took office this week, are a welcome development for investors, but we think the public debt ratio will stay on a sharp... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Emerging Europe is less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Diverging paths in the face of US protectionism Emerging Europe is generally less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but we have still nudged down some of our GDP growth forecasts for this year. We think the region will... 18th June 2025 · 22 mins read
