Romania’s economy has been in recession since the second half of last year and is likely to stagnate over the rest of this year as past fiscal tightening and the squeeze on households’ real incomes continue to weigh on activity. The risks to our GDP forecasts (2026: -0.5%; 2027: +1.5%) lie to the downside, particularly with the need for policymakers to push through more fiscal tightening.
We’ll be discussing our latest EM Financial Risk Indicators in an online briefing at 10:00 ET / 15:00 BST today. Register here.
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