Emerging Europe Economics Update What do Germany’s struggles mean for CEE? The continued weakness in the German economy that we expect over the rest of this decade presents a challenge to the export-orientated economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While GDP growth... 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation to rebound before long While inflation fell further across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March, we think that the recent run of good CPI news is largely over. We expect inflation to rise back above central banks’... 11th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Public finances now a growing concern in parts of CEE The larger-than-expected 2023 budget deficit figures released across parts of Central Europe this week underline our concerns about the fiscal challenges facing the region. The need for fiscal... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CEE industrial rents to trail the rest of Europe The CEE industrial market cooled in 2023 as economic activity stagnated. This year will herald an economic recovery but we don’t think it will be stop the rent growth slowdown. Demand is anticipated... 4th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs rose across Central and Eastern Europe in March but they remain consistent with a relatively weak recovery. 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 24) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month and in most... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Overheating in Russia and Turkey, recoveries in CEE Economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) ended last year in stagnation, but headwinds to growth are lifting and we think that 2024 will be a year of modest recovery. Inflation has fallen sharply... 26th March 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 50bp again today, to 5.75%, and we think that it will continue easing policy throughout 2024. Our forecast for interest rates to fall to 3.50% by the end... 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tightening in Turkey, CNB holds onto its hawkishness Pressures on Turkish policymakers are building ahead of the local elections on 31st March as capital inflows have slowed and FX reserves are falling again. We doubt the central bank will hike interest... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czechia to remain one of the sick men of Europe The Czech economy has had the weakest performance of any EU country since the pandemic, and we think that growth will disappoint expectations again in 2024. This will keep inflation contained and put... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Jan.) We’d expected a large fall in Czech inflation in January, but the collapse from 6.9% y/y in December to just 2.3% y/y shows that price pressures are dissipating even more quickly than we’d anticipated... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech euro adoption, Glapinski turns hawkish The Czech government’s debate on adopting the euro took another step forward this week, although we think that the potential benefits of joining the single currency union would be outweighed by the... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: rapid labour cost growth eroding competitiveness The surge in labour costs across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in recent years has led to a sharp loss of competitiveness and raised concern about the impact on the region. We remain relatively... 9th February 2024 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Czech National Bank accelerated the pace of its monetary easing cycle today with a 50bp interest rate cut, to 6.25%, and the post-meeting communications support our view that an even larger... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary-EU tensions cool, Czech currency valuation Hungary dropped its veto against the EU's financing package for Ukraine on Thursday, ending a week of uncertainty that added downside risks to the currency. Provided the easing in tensions is... 2nd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for January remained soft and haven’t changed the broad picture that the region’s industrial sectors continue to struggle. Turkey’s PMI... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read