Economic growth has generally held up well since the start of the year, albeit with a divergence that is likely to persist in the coming quarters. Poland is likely to be an outperformer while Romania will stay weak. We expect monetary easing cycles to continue in Israel and Hungary and a window for rate cuts also appears to have opened in Turkey. But still-strong core inflation will prevent rate cuts in Poland and prompt Czechia’s central bank to deliver further tightening.
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