Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Security guarantees “with strings", dovish central banks Reports this week suggest the US has made the offer of security guarantees for Ukraine conditional on territorial concessions to Russia. The macro implications will depend on how credible those... 30th January 2026 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE GDP (Q4 2025 & Annual 2025) GDP figures out of Central Europe this morning show that Poland’s recovery gathered pace, while Hungary lagged behind. We think that growth will pick up across the region this year, although Poland... 30th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan. 2026) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth held steady at around 2.5% y/y at the start of 2026, but divergence in... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, gave no new guidance on the timing at which monetary easing may resume. But... 27th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 26th January 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s playbook, Greenland saga, Bulgarian election Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is returning to the familiar playbook of loosening fiscal policy ahead of the election in April. Any signs that a widening in the budget deficit will be sustained... 23rd January 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Questions and answers on Hungary’s pivotal election The latest polls suggest that Viktor Orbán’s long-ruling Fidesz party could lose power in Hungary’s parliamentary election on 12th April. This Update answers five key questions on the implications of... 20th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec. 2025) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth held steady at around 2.5% y/y in December, and we think that growth will... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB’s dovish shift, Russia & oil prices, Ukraine’s loan The Hungarian central bank’s dovish communications following its decision to leave policy settings unchanged this week suggest the risks have become skewed to an interest rate cut arriving earlier... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to leave its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, was widely expected and, despite a near-term dip in inflation, we expect rates to stay on hold until... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging outlook as war in Ukraine drags on Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will... 15th December 2025 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine support, CEE rate hikes? There has been further wrangling ahead of the EU leaders’ summit next week about providing a “reparations loan” to Ukraine. Given Ukraine’s dependence on European support, failure to reach agreement... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally rose in November and point to solid regional growth in Q4. That said, firms’ selling price expectations... 27th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Default risks easing, but simmering fiscal problems in some EMs The incidence of sovereign debt distress has declined sharply across the EM world and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. But our EM Financial Risk Indicators suggest that several countries are still... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
