US sanctions talk, Hungary’s constitution, oil prices

Renewed momentum in the US to tighten sanctions on Russia, including through the imposition of secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian energy, could add further pressure on the economy and complicate the continued financing of its war effort. Meanwhile, the amendments to Hungary's constitution this week point to a further escalation in institutional tensions, although at this stage it doesn't look like it will derail the unlocking of EU funds. Finally, while upside risks to global oil prices have resurfaced, we think the impact on the inflation outlook in Emerging Europe and the boost to Russia's economy will be limited.