The decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to further slow the pace of its easing cycle today with a 100bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 39.50%, seems to reflect policymakers’ growing concerns that the disinflation process is entering a slower phase. We think that interest rate cuts will continue over the coming months, but it’s clear that moves from meeting to meeting will hinge on surprises in the latest inflation data. Given this more cautious stance, we have nudged up our end-2026 rate forecast slightly to 27.00% (previously 25.00%).
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