Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Central Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 16.00%, as was expected by most analysts, and further monetary easing is likely next year. That said, with the disinflation process... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech National Bank left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, as was widely expected by analysts, and policy settings are likely to remain on hold next year. We continue to think the CNB’s... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to leave its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, was widely expected and, despite a near-term dip in inflation, we expect rates to stay on hold until... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 2025) The decision by the Turkish central bank to accelerate the pace of its easing cycle today with a 150bp cut to its one-week repo rate, to 38.00%, was accompanied by relatively hawkish communications... 11th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and the softness in the latest inflation and wage data suggests to us that a bit more monetary easing will be delivered... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The larger than expected fall in Turkish inflation in November, to 31.1% y/y, provides a green light for the central bank to continue its easing cycle at its meeting next Thursday. We maintain our... 3rd December 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The increase in the manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in November offers some encouragement that demand conditions in the region’s industrial sectors may be past the worst. We expect a pickup... 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q3 2025) The slowdown in Turkish GDP growth in Q3, to 1.1% q/q, still leaves the economy running relatively hot. But the positive contribution from net exports suggests that policymakers’ efforts to rebalance... 1st December 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally rose in November and point to solid regional growth in Q4. That said, firms’ selling price expectations... 27th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the Bank of Israel to cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.25%, was accompanied by communications which suggest that further monetary easing will be approached cautiously and will... 24th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold, at 6.50% as expected today, and with pre-election fiscal loosening on the cards, the monetary easing cycle looks like it may stay paused for... 18th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 0.6% y/y, confirms that the war and high interest rates are continuing to take their toll on activity, and the latest US sanctions on the energy sector... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q3 2025) The strong 0.8% q/q growth recorded in Poland in Q3 confirms that it remains one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and suggests that the risks to our near-term GDP forecasts lie to the upside... 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 6.50%, came as no surprise, and a return to monetary easing is still some way off. Our current forecast is... 12th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the Czech National Bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, was widely expected by analysts, and policy settings are likely to remain unchanged next month. That said, in... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 4.25%, but we think the monetary easing cycle doesn’t have much further to go. We’re maintaining our forecast for only one more 25bp... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
