The Central Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 16.00%, as was expected by most analysts, and further monetary easing is likely next year. That said, with the disinflation process likely to enter a slower phase, we think the risks are skewed to temporary pauses in the easing cycle, and we expect the policy rate to end next year at 13.00%, which is a more hawkish view than the consensus.
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