“Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do

The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require policymakers to remain committed to reforms. We’re most hopeful about Turkey and Egypt and think the recent reduction in risk premia will be maintained. But we’re more doubtful about Argentina due to the extent of the challenges the country faces, and Nigeria due to a lack of serious commitment to reform among policymakers.

In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Emerging Markets Update to clients of our Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa Economics services.