Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight EM credit spreads mask lingering fiscal risks Measures of EM fiscal risk premia are very low, which partly reflects genuine policy improvements in some high-risk economies. But a few countries such as Mozambique and Tunisia still face the risk of... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2026) High-frequency data suggest that the rise in US Treasury yields has triggered capital outflows from EMs. But so far at least, the shift has been relatively gradual. Taken together with strong external... 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EM central banks follow the Fed? While a handful of EM central banks (e.g. India, Czechia, Mexico) are likely to hike interest rates in the coming months, they will be doing so for domestic reasons not because of the Fed. More... 21st September 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Soft EM food inflation is on borrowed time A severe El Niño and the lagged effects of the energy shock are likely to push EM food inflation up from current lows. Food is unlikely to be as important as core or energy prices in determining the... 9th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update Learning to live with extreme weather events The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will be a greater source of economic volatility than in the past and could hit some sectors particularly hard. The changing nature of... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A bumpy and uneven Q3 for EM manufacturing The small rise in the emerging market manufacturing PMI in August looks encouraging, but masks the fact that the surveys declined in most EMs last month. Encouragingly, the prices components remained... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update AI rally and oil prices to drive EM asset divergence While local-currency bonds in parts of LatAm and EM Europe may outperform those in Asia if oil prices fall, equities in those regions are likely to continue to lag their Asian peers as the AI rally... 26th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2026) Capital flows into EM bond and equity markets have returned to positive territory in the past few weeks and are nearing their highest level in over two years. Even if flows were to reverse course, our... 24th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Q2 GDP data show global economy weathering war 19th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICS summit will again highlight lack of cohesion The upcoming BRICS summit in New Delhi will be billed by India as an effort to give the expanded grouping a more practical and constructive role in the global economy. But differences over the Iran... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs benefit if tourists don’t return to the Gulf? The recovery in tourism by non-GCC nationals to the Gulf remains slow. If this persists, shifting travel patterns might result in significant gains in some smaller economies in the Caribbean and the... 18th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM wage pressures easing, but pockets of concern EM labour market conditions have softened further this year, with wage growth now back to or below pre-pandemic rates in many places. Inflationary pressures stemming from labour markets have faded... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why have EM currency crisis risks stayed so low? One question frequently asked by clients about the latest refresh of our EM Financial Risk Indicators is why currency crisis risks have remained so low through the energy shock. In part, it reflects... 10th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Heatwaves, El Niño and the impact on EMs The direct economic effects of recent heatwaves across many northern hemisphere EMs are likely to prove limited. But taken together with El Niño, which is set to strengthen in the coming months, and... 6th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (July 2026) Capital inflows into EMs financial markets – particularly equities – have risen over the past month despite the resumption of conflict in the Middle East. Outflows could return again if the situation... 29th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
