Where do EMs sit in the business cycle?

Aggregate EM GDP growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters but, as ever, there are many stories playing out at country level. Brazil is likely to lead the slowdown while growth in China will remain soft. Mexico and Argentina have bottomed out, but recoveries are likely to be slow-going. At the other end of the spectrum, much of the Gulf and North Africa should see faster growth over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, GDP growth in India and Taiwan has peaked but both should remain outperformers.