Emerging Markets Economics Update

EMs: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of EM-focused client meetings in Switzerland and Germany which covered a wide range of topics, including the impact of global fracturing, AI and the green transition on...

16th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (August 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most Latin American economies appear to have headed into Q3 with little momentum...

28th August 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela?

Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood...

16th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Will Argentina lift capital controls?

The Argentine peso’s overvaluation is becoming an increasing point of concern and attention has shifted to whether the Milei administration will lift capital controls. We think that some form of...

31st July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in...

24th July 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina intervenes (again), Q2 shaping up to be weaker

Argentine financial assets sold off this week after Economy Minister Caputo announced that the central bank will start to sell dollars in the parallel market. The plan shows that the government is...

19th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage

The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

The Brazilian real at 30

Monday marks the 30th anniversary of the introduction of Brazil’s currency, the real, as part of a stabilisation plan (the Plano Real) which successfully tamed runaway inflation. For other EMs facing...

27th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. After a strong start of the year, regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s IMF review, cautious central banks

The eighth review of Argentina’s IMF programme published this week is a whole-hearted endorsement of President Milei’s economic record. That said, the Fund called on Argentine authorities to take...

21st June 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Weak growth to make fiscal challenge harder

The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to...

20th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

What La Niña means for Latin America

There is a growing chance of a La Niña weather pattern taking hold in the second half of this year. While the economic effects would depend on its severity and length, La Niña events tend to coincide...

20th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Currency worries, good news from Argentina

Recent sharp falls in the Brazilian real and Mexican peso will add to concerns at their respective central banks. We now expect no further rate cuts in Brazil this year and the risks to our already...

14th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s vote, Chile’s rate cut, Argentina’s trade surplus

The dramatic improvement in Argentina’s trade balance has helped the central bank to rebuild its FX reserves, but this has only been made possible because domestic demand has collapsed. A weaker...

24th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Frontier Markets Wrap

Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low?

The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and...

24th May 2024 · 4 mins read