Latin America Economic Outlook

Electoral forks in the road

Latin America’s GDP growth is likely to slow a little in 2026 and, with inflation softening, monetary easing is likely to continue. The scale of rate cuts will vary across countries, with a large...

4th December 2025 · 23 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Nov. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Aggregate Latin American growth slowed in Q3 and we doubt that there will be a...

20th November 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Investors cheer Milei’s win, Brazil’s soybeans

The strong showing for Milei's LLA party in Argentina's mid-term elections last Sunday has led to a sharp improvement in sentiment and should ease pressure on the peso in the near-term. But the risk...

31st October 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2025)

EM financial markets have continued to perform well in the past quarter, with currencies holding firm against the US dollar and sovereign bond spreads narrowing in many places. This has been supported...

29th October 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Oct. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American economies fared poorly in Q3 and we think that headwinds ranging...

28th October 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Answering your questions on Argentina’s mid-terms

The larger-than-expected victory for Argentina’s President Milei in Sunday’s mid-term elections has sparked a rally in Argentinian financial markets. Our initial response to the election can be found...

27th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Argentina Mid-Term Elections (October 2025)

The strong showing for President Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party is not only an endorsement of his reform agenda but will also substantially increase the LLA’s representation in congress, which...

27th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

All eyes on Argentina’s election, Mexico’s weak economy

Argentines head to the polls on Sunday in crucial mid-term elections that will determine the future of President Milei's stabilisation programme. A poor showing for his La Libertad Avanza party would...

24th October 2025 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s high-stake election, BRL under pressure

Comments from US President Trump this week suggest the financial support for Argentina will be contingent on Milei doing well in the mid-terms later this month. A strong showing for Milei's party...

17th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Friends with benefits: the US, Argentina and other EMs

The US’s recent pledge of support for Argentina raises the question of whether other EMs facing financial difficulty might receive similar assistance. Pakistan and Jordan are potential candidates, as...

16th October 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

The Argentine peso: what to expect after the mid-terms

Despite denials from policymakers, we think that Argentina’s exchange rate regime in its current form is unsustainable and that there will be a change after the mid-term elections later this month. We...

14th October 2025 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar rebounds; blast from the past for yen & Argentina

While President Trump’s return to the trade war path this afternoon has led to a drop in the dollar, it has risen, on net, this week – despite (or perhaps because of) the absence of most US economic...

10th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s job market, Argentina’s bailout, Peru’s crisis

The announcement that the US Treasury purchased Argentine peso assets has provided a boost to Argentina’s financial markets. It's unclear what the US will demand in exchange, but it could include the...

10th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Contrary to consensus expectations for growth to stabilise, we expect growth in...

29th September 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Trump bails out Milei, and meets with Lula next week

The big news out of Latin America this week was the US government’s announcement that it would “do what is needed” to support Argentina. Unsurprisingly, local markets reacted positively. It might give...

26th September 2025 · 7 mins read