Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The US-Iran deal and fall in oil prices reduces the tailwind for the region’s energy producers. And together with tight fiscal policy, feeds into our view that growth will disappoint consensus expectations. Although inflation generally dipped in May, it will rise in the coming months. Central banks in Mexico, Chile and Peru are likely to hike interest rates over the next 12 months. But very tight monetary conditions will give Brazil and Colombia some room to lower rates.
Victories for right-wing candidates in this month’s presidential elections in Peru and Colombia have boosted the sol and peso. But future gains will depend on whether the new governments can make meaningful progress on fiscal challenges, particularly in Colombia.
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