Latin America Economics Weekly Copom rates, Brazil’s rare earths, fiscal developments With the latest indicators suggesting that Brazil's economy is holding up well and the labour market is still strong, we now expect the Selic rate to end this year at 13.25% (compared to 12.50%... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (May 2026) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) made clear in its communications today that its 25bp interest rate cut, to 6.50%, marks the last in the cycle. We think this is now likely to be followed by a prolonged... 7th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr. 2026) The small fall in Mexican inflation (both headline and core) last month, taken together with the decline in GDP in Q1, gives policymakers at the central bank room to deliver one final 25bp rate cut in... 7th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Making sense of BanRep’s hold, Mexico’s export boom Colombia’s central bank (BanRep) defied expectations for another rate hike this week, opting to keep rates unchanged instead, which may raise concerns that the Board is taking President Petro’s... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q1 2026 Provisional) The larger-than-expected 0.8% q/q contraction in Mexico’s GDP was driven by broad-based weakness across all main sectors and strengthens the case for a 25bp cut at Banxico’s meeting next week. 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly USMCA, Kast’s fiscal plans, BCB to cut rates Comments from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer this week suggest seem to have dashed Mexico’s hopes of removing tariffs on autos, exports of which have been struggling. There are also... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr. 2026) The small fall in Mexican inflation, to 4.5% y/y, in the first half of April was driven by easing underlying price pressures and will be welcomed by the central bank. That’s increased the likelihood... 23rd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Many major Latin American economies have received a terms-of-trade boost from the... 16th April 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update High energy prices a double-edged sword Latin America as a whole is a net beneficiary from higher energy prices, but the terms of trade boost is limited (or in Mexico’s case more than offset) by a lack of domestic refining capacity. The... 13th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Strong trade data, inflation jump, Peru votes The early trade data for March suggests that Brazil's economy is, on net, benefitting from the energy price shock and that Chile's rising energy import bill is being offset by strong exports... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026) The sharp rise in Mexican inflation to 4.6% y/y in March took inflation further above Banxico’s target and means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 6.75% at next month’s meeting... 9th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Few signs of fuel subsidies, the right on the rise Governments in Latin America, unlike those in other parts of the emerging world, have generally refrained from large fiscal measures to shield households and businesses from higher energy prices... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered a dovish surprise today as it lowered its policy rate by 25bp, to 6.75%, and signalled that it would consider cutting interest rates again. While this could... 26th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom cuts, Venezuelan oil to the rescue? Brazil's central bank kicked off its easing cycle this week and, given how high real interest rates are, we think that it's one of the few EMs that has room to loosen policy further even if global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Terms of trade boost, Copom: 25bp vs 50bp As net energy exporters, most major Latin American economies benefit on net from the renewed leg up in oil prices. As thing stand, we don't think the inflationary impact will stop Brazil's central... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm: net beneficiaries from the energy price shock Major Latin American economies are seen as potential beneficiaries of higher energy prices, reflecting in large part their stronger net energy export positions. This Update summarises the key... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
