Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Provisional) The 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s GDP means that the economy dodged a technical recession last quarter. But growth was driven by a rebound in agriculture and the rest of the economy – and the... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Can Mexico fill China’s shoes? Mexico is well positioned to benefit if punitive US tariffs on China prompt a shift in US import demand towards other EMs, as seems likely, although its ability to ramp up exports in the near term... 28th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s weak economy, US support for Argentina The latest data out of Mexico suggest that, despite repeated tariff threats, the economy eked out positive growth in Q1 and avoided a technical recession. But activity is still extremely subdued... 25th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2025) Despite the slump in the US dollar, outflows from EM capital markets have surged since President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcements. There have been tentative signs of stabilisation more... 24th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of April, to 4.0% y/y, is unlikely to shift Banxico’s focus away from the weakness of the economy and we expect it to deliver another... 24th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin America generally got off lightly on ‘liberation day’, but the indirect... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s IMF deal #23, tariff relief, Hegseth in Panama One key feature of Argentina's latest IMF deal – which the Fund's Board is set to vote on today – is likely to be a shift towards a more flexible exchange rate and an easing of capital controls. While... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Getting off relatively lightly Governments across Latin America are likely to be breathing sighs of relief following US President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday - they've ended up facing tariff rates at the lower end of... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico spared the worst, but growth will still be weak Mexico got off lightly from the tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday and the overall hit to the economy from US trade measures may be a bit smaller than we’d initially thought. Even so, we... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing steady, but tariffs cloud the outlook The EM manufacturing PMI ticked up in March on the back of a pick-up in China as well as a continued recovery in Central and Eastern Europe. But tariffs present a major headwind to EMs’ industrial... 1st April 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: budget deficit gives no room to cushion tariff hit The blowout in Mexico’s budget deficit to its largest level since the 1980s last year means that the government has little scope to offset the hit to the economy from US tariffs. There’ll probably be... 31st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Could the US coerce others to increase tariffs on China? The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China. Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico: tariffs, carve outs and Banxico Mexico is the most exposed country to the auto tariffs that US President Trump announced this week and, while there are carve-outs for USMCA-compliant trade, these will probably provide little relief... 28th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The statement accompanying the Mexican central bank’s (Banxico’s) decision to lower its policy rate by another 50bp cut, to 9.00%, today suggests that growth concerns are rapidly overtaking inflation... 27th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2025) Outflows from EM capital markets have eased in recent weeks as the US dollar has faltered. But a period of sustained inflows looks unlikely as President Trump presses ahead with tariff policies that... 27th March 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
