Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul. 2024) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of July, to 5.6% y/y, was driven entirely by a jump in non-core inflation; core inflation fell. Our base case remains that Banxico... 24th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina intervenes (again), Q2 shaping up to be weaker Argentine financial assets sold off this week after Economy Minister Caputo announced that the central bank will start to sell dollars in the parallel market. The plan shows that the government is... 19th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Food inflation, US tariffs, Colombia’s public finance risks The raft of June inflation data out this week was not as bad as the rise in the headline rates would suggest, as higher food inflation masked falls in in core inflation. Core inflation appears most... 12th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2024) Net capital inflows into EMs remained positive over the past month, largely reflecting continued strong inflows into EM bonds, particularly Turkey, while there were outflows post-election in Mexico... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in June, was mainly due to a surge in agricultural inflation; core inflation edged down last month. While there’s still a... 9th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Key highlights from June This Monthly looks at some of the key climate-related developments in June, including the narrowing wedge between the EU and UK carbon prices, and what Nobel Prize-winning climate scientist Claudia... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.) Mexico’s central bank left rates unchanged at 11.00% today, but there was a surprising dovish shift in the Board’s communications – despite the post-election fall in the peso. A small reduction in the... 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. After a strong start of the year, regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and... 25th June 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun. 2024) The continued strength in core services inflation in Mexico in the first half of June, combined with the post-election slump in the peso and heightened political uncertainty, means that Banxico is... 24th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weak growth to make fiscal challenge harder The economies of Latin America started the year on the front foot, but the strong growth rates recorded in early 2024 are unlikely to be sustained and growth in many parts of the region is likely to... 20th June 2024 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, good news from Argentina Recent sharp falls in the Brazilian real and Mexican peso will add to concerns at their respective central banks. We now expect no further rate cuts in Brazil this year and the risks to our already... 14th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s energy sector at a turning point? Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully... 10th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s ‘supermajority’ worries, Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures The prospect of a Morena-led supermajority in Mexico’s congress following Sunday’s election could allow Amlo's proposed constitutional amendments to see the light of day, weakening Mexico’s... 7th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Parsing the market’s verdict on recent EM elections Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in their financial markets over the past week or so, highlighting the potential for electoral surprises to generate short... 7th June 2024 · 6 mins read