Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico jumps on the tariff bandwagon, Milei’s defeat Mexico's decision this week to impose tariffs on countries it doesn't have a free trade agreement with (notably China) was probably influenced by trade talks with the US, but it also supports the... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be... 10th September 2025 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The small rise in Mexican inflation to 3.6% y/y in August still leaves the headline rate within Banxico’s target range and means that policymakers are likely to deliver another 25bp cut, to 7.50%, at... 9th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rubio in Lat Am, Brazil slows, Buenos Aires votes Marco Rubio's trip to Latin America this week highlighted the US’s growing focus on the region - and particularly efforts to curb drug trafficking. The next thing to watch is Colombia's narcotics... 5th September 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The implications of Mexican tariffs on China Mexico’s plans, reported by Bloomberg, to put tariffs on imports from China (and possibly other parts of Asia) target many of the government’s goals – appeasing the US, mending the public finances and... 28th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in many parts of the region, and Brazil in particular, slowed in Q2... 26th August 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Worsening current account positions, Bolivia’s election One theme to emerge from the recently-released GDP figures is that domestic demand is increasingly leaking into imports, which will cause current account positions to worsen. External positions still... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm debt risks easing, but still some pockets of concern Sovereign debt risks across Latin America have eased in the past year or so but there are still important nuances at a country level. Public finance risks in Brazil and Colombia are most concerning... 19th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Shift in rate expectations in Brazil, Chile set for slowdown The latest data out of Brazil point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q2, which, alongside softening inflation, has led to a shift in the debate towards interest rate cuts, perhaps by year-end. This... 15th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: riding the US data centre boom Mexico’s exports of AI-related products to the US have surged and now rival its key auto exports. While there may be a degree of tariff front-running at play, the boom in US data centre investment... 13th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s remittance drop, Pemex, Brazil adapts to tariffs The large drop in remittances to Mexico (in dollar terms) in June suggests that the Trump administration’s crackdown on undocumented migrants is starting to have an economic impact south of the border... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) lowered its policy rate by a smaller 25bp, to 7.75%, as expected at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications suggest that cuts are likely to continue in... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) The drop in Mexican inflation to 3.5% y/y in July paves the way for Banxico to deliver the clearly-signalled 25bp cut, to 7.75%, at its meeting later today. 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s tariff resilience, exemptions for Chile & Brazil Having found itself in Trump’s firing line a few weeks ago, this week’s tariffs announcements were better for much of Latin America than had been feared and it now looks like the hit to GDP will be... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
