Chief Economist's Note Trump’s near-term macro impact won’t be big. Longer term is a very different story. Donald Trump’s sweeping election victory has prompted a scramble among economic forecasters to adjust their numbers in anticipation of a very different path for US policy. We’re not convinced that the... 11th November 2024
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s Trump challenge Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.8% y/y in October, was driven entirely by a jump in agricultural price inflation. Core inflation edged down last month which... 7th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued... 1st November 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional) The stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q3 confirms that the economy pulled out of the slump seen in the first half of the year last quarter. We still think the conditions... 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (October 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American financial assets have come under pressure amid the recent rise in... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would a collapse of USMCA affect Mexico? A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a plausible scenario in which Mexico were to face a universal import... 29th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal dominance, Mexico’s Trump risk, Uruguay votes Hawkish comments from Brazil's central bank amid concerns that the economy is overheating and that the narrative that ‘fiscal dominance’ may take hold suggest that Copom is likely to step up the pace... 25th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2024) The fall in Mexican core services inflation in the first half of October in principle gives Banxico space to press ahead with another 25bp rate cut next month, but much will hinge on the outcome of... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and Trump’s vehicle tariff threat Recent threats by Donald Trump to impose tariffs on Mexico’s vehicle sector could just be pre-election bluster or an attempt to get concessions from Mexico. But if implemented, they would deal a big... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What China’s export surge means for Latin America Latin America has played an important role in absorbing China’s export surge, which is generating concern among local policymakers. But the response is likely to vary across the region. Governments in... 15th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s first two weeks in office, Banxico minutes President Claudia Sheinbaum's first two weeks in office suggest that she will seek to maintain Mexico’s close geopolitical alignment with the US. But on the domestic front, there have been more... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico & Brazil Consumer Prices (Sep. 2024) The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in September was mainly due to drought-related effects on food and electricity prices but, even so, it will reinforce the hawkishness of Copom... 9th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and what to expect from President Sheinbaum We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss what investors should expect as Claudia Sheinbaum takes over the presidency in Mexico. A recording of the event can be found here. This Update answers some of... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico in Trump’s firing line, Colombia’s budget drama Donald Trump's threats this week to impose tariffs on imports of cars and agricultural equipment from Mexico highlight how big a risk his return to the White House would pose to Mexico’s free trade... 27th September 2024 · 7 mins read
