Latin America Economics Update Mexico: budget deficit gives no room to cushion tariff hit The blowout in Mexico’s budget deficit to its largest level since the 1980s last year means that the government has little scope to offset the hit to the economy from US tariffs. There’ll probably be... 31st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Could the US coerce others to increase tariffs on China? The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China. Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico: tariffs, carve outs and Banxico Mexico is the most exposed country to the auto tariffs that US President Trump announced this week and, while there are carve-outs for USMCA-compliant trade, these will probably provide little relief... 28th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The statement accompanying the Mexican central bank’s (Banxico’s) decision to lower its policy rate by another 50bp cut, to 9.00%, today suggests that growth concerns are rapidly overtaking inflation... 27th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2025) Outflows from EM capital markets have eased in recent weeks as the US dollar has faltered. But a period of sustained inflows looks unlikely as President Trump presses ahead with tariff policies that... 27th March 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The protectionist shift in the US will weigh heavily on Mexico’s economy, which at... 26th March 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar. 2025) The further easing of core services inflation in Mexico in the first half of March combined with recent weak activity data paves the way for Banxico to deliver another 50bp cut at its meeting on... 24th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our... 20th March 2025 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Mapping China’s presence in Latin America China’s presence in Latin America is increasingly seen as a strategic threat by the US. This Focus uses interactive charts to map out economic, financial and institutional linkages between China and... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Trump tariffs on Mexico: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Mexico may have received a (belated) reprieve from US tariffs this week, but some goods will still be subject to US duties now and there’s still the lingering uncertainty about what (if any) tariffs... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y in February was entirely driven by non-core inflation and therefore won’t be a major concern for the central bank. Indeed, we think that the... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (March 2025) Weak global demand a risk to OPEC+ plans The recent confirmation from OPEC+ that it intends to go ahead with the plans to gradually increase oil production from April has coincided with ongoing signs... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump’s tariffs and the implications for Mexico The 25% tariff on all US imports from Mexico that came into force today will, if it stays in place, knock Mexico’s economy into recession in the coming quarters. A contraction in GDP this year of 1%... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implications 1741100400 Our senior economists hosted this special online briefing all about the latest tariff announcements from the White House, their macro and market implications, and what comes n
