Mexico: Recession fears overdone but growth to stay weak

The recent resurgence of recession fears in Mexico appears overblown to us, but there’s no doubt that the economy is struggling. While most attribute the weakness to higher tariffs, tight fiscal policy appears to be the main culprit. Additional fiscal consolidation into 2026 will continue to weigh on demand and supports our view that GDP growth won’t pick up as quickly as most are currently expecting.

We’ll be online on Wednesday 5th November at 10.00ET/15.00 GMT to discuss our EM Risk Indicators. Register here.