Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of the drought in Brazil Drought conditions across parts of Brazil are not yet at the stage where there is a threat of major disruptions to electricity supply, but it has already prompted electricity prices to be hiked and... 3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and what to expect from President Sheinbaum We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss what investors should expect as Claudia Sheinbaum takes over the presidency in Mexico. A recording of the event can be found here. This Update answers some of... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Depreciation in Mexican peso may have a bit further to run Despite the peso’s recent rebound, we suspect that an unstable political and economic outlook means that it, and Mexican financial assets more generally, will perform poorly over the next year or so. 17th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs The Fed’s upcoming monetary easing cycle will probably provide less of a tailwind to EMs than is widely thought. While it’s likely to give some central banks (such as in the Gulf, Mexico and Indonesia... 12th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot? The approval by Mexico's Senate to a sweeping judicial reform has removed the last big obstacle to outgoing President López Obrador’s controversial plan to overhaul the justice system. In light of... 11th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: labour market driving spending and inflation fears The tightening of Brazil’s labour market and pick-up in wage growth over the first half of the year has supported a consumer boom. We expect conditions to cool over the coming quarters but, for now... 5th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s constitutional reforms: Amlo’s parting shot? The swearing in of a new congress next month gives Mexico’s outgoing president, Amlo, a one month window to re-start plans to pass controversial planned constitutional amendments. At the very least... 22nd August 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Savings problem to weigh on Colombia’s prospects The prevailing view that, over the medium term, Colombia will maintain its position as Latin America’s fastest-growing major economy looks overly optimistic in light of the collapse in its savings and... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Mixed outlook for Brazilian financial assets Brazilian assets have generally underperformed other EMs so far this year, but measures of risk premia still appear low to us, especially given concerns over public finances. While bonds may offer... 20th August 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update What Sino-Indian relations tell us about global fracturing Signs of a thaw in frosty relations between India and China don’t point to a fundamental realignment in India’s position in a fracturing global economy. But they highlight a growing theme of some EMs... 13th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will the BCB hike rates? The minutes to last week’s central bank meeting in Brazil raised the possibility that policymakers will respond to the worsening inflation outlook by hiking interest rates. And despite the sharp shift... 6th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recession concerns, the market sell-off and EMs Fears of a US recession have rattled EM equity markets at a time when EM economies themselves are showing more pronounced signs of weakness. Most EM currencies have held up well, suggesting a dovish... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will Argentina lift capital controls? The Argentine peso’s overvaluation is becoming an increasing point of concern and attention has shifted to whether the Milei administration will lift capital controls. We think that some form of... 31st July 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil using sticking plasters as public finances worsen The recent sharp deterioration in Brazil’s public finances has forced Finance Minister Fernando Haddad to outline further fiscal tightening measures, but we doubt that the government will do enough to... 23rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s election: time for change? The latest polls suggest that the opposition is on track to win Venezuela’s election later this month but President Maduro is likely to do all he can to cling on to power. If he manages to do so... 18th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula’s attacks threaten more political influence at BCB Brazil’s President Lula has renewed his attacks on the central bank and high interest rates in recent weeks, raising fears that there could be more political influence on monetary policy from next... 8th July 2024 · 5 mins read