Latin America Economics Update Brazil rates: too much caution now priced in? Strong GDP growth and rising inflation have raised the bar for further interest rate cuts in Brazil, and we expect a pause in the cycle later this year, with just one or two more 25bp cuts over the... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update An (updated) primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... 2nd July 2026 · 8 mins read
Equities Update Low valuations won’t help Brazilian equities much We think Brazilian equities will underperform most other EM equity indices this year as commodity prices fall back and political risk remains a problem. In our view, Brazil’s equity market does not... 1st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia joins Latin America’s shift to the right The victory for right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia’s presidential election should pave the way for more pro-business policymaking, tighter fiscal policy and improved relations with the US... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The price of free time in Latin America Latin America is seeing a wave of labour market reforms that reduce maximum working hours with no reduction in compensation, which could raise inflation and reduce competitiveness. It appears most... 2nd June 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update De la Espriella in pole position but faces hurdles The strong showing for right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election will be welcomed by investors. A further rally in the peso and a decline in... 1st June 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What lies in store for Colombia’s markets post-election? Colombian assets would rally in the event of a victory for a right-wing candidate in the presidential election. Local currency bond yields appear to have the greatest scope to stage a post-election... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM central banks might be next to hike? The EM central banks that have tightened monetary conditions in response to the energy shock (Turkey, Pakistan, Philippines) are facing balance of payments strains and very large inflation shocks... 19th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal crossroads: continuity or austerity? A victory for left-wing Iván Cepeda in Colombia’s presidential election would probably continue the Petro government’s track record of running large budget deficits, causing Colombia’s sovereign risk... 13th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Terms of trade boost giving Brazil a lift The data for March and April seem to confirm that Brazil’s economy is one of the few economies benefitting from the energy price shock. As things stand, the risks to our 2026 growth forecast of 1.5%... 12th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil pivots towards rare earth nationalism A bill approved by Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies this week tackles some of the key impediments to (currently minimal) rare earths extraction. However, the bill gives the government significant control... 7th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: early thoughts on Lula vs. Bolsonaro Brazil’s presidential election on 4th October is shaping up to be a close race between President Lula and right-wing challenger Flavio Bolsonaro. While Bolsonaro would likely take a tougher stance on... 6th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A primer on Colombia’s high-stakes election Colombians head to the polls on 31st May in an election which has major implications for the outlook for the economy and financial markets. This Update sets out the state of play, highlights the key... 29th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Iran war and EMs – your questions answered This Update answers the questions on the Iran war and the impact on emerging markets that we have received most frequently from clients in meetings, through our platform and in our online briefings... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Vaca Muerta fuels energy turnaround The surge in shale oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta field over the past few years has turned Argentina from a net energy importer into an exporter, meaning that – unlike during previous... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
