Latin America Economics Update Colombia: no appetite for conventional fiscal tightening Colombian President Petro’s recently published draft pension decree would, if implemented, reduce the government’s financing needs. But it won’t make much of a dent in the large budget deficit and... · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update How the new tariff backdrop affects Canada & Mexico In this Update, we answer some of the questions we have received on how the new US tariff regime (see here ) will impact Canada and Mexico. The big picture is that Canada and Mexico’s weighted-average... · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Elevated metals prices to support Andes’ terms of trade We think metals prices will fall back from current high levels, which will weigh on Latin American currencies. But prices will remain high by historical standards, which should keep external positions... · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s war on drugs & what it means for the economy The immediate impact of the outburst of violence in Mexico following the killing of drug kingpin “El Mencho” is likely to be a hit to tourism. But the longer the unrest drags on, the bigger the risk... · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
US Economics Update A primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three market-moving EM elections to watch this year Elections in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary have the greatest potential to deliver large financial market moves this year. A shift towards more investor-friendly policymaking and improved fiscal... · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Costa Rica’s election: the macro implications Costa Rica’s ruling party looks set to hold onto power at the general election on 1st February. A more fragmented legislature – as seems likely – may make it harder to pass reforms, including measures... · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: some signs of cooling in the labour market Brazil’s labour market has been a key pillar of strength during the post-pandemic boom, but there are signs that conditions are now starting to cool. While this should take some pressure off wage... · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s potentially messy sovereign debt restructuring Venezuela faces one of the largest and most complex sovereign debt restructurings on record. A high debt ratio, a complex array of creditors, deep-rooted issues in Venezuela’s oil sector as well as... · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BanRep to hike but market pricing looking too aggressive The bumper minimum wage hike in Colombia will probably push inflation above 6% this year and prompt the central bank to hike its policy rate at this month’s meeting. We’ve pencilled in a 50bp interest... · 3 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions on the “shadow fleet” The seizure of the Marinera oil tanker by the US has put the “shadow fleet” under the spotlight, with some estimates suggesting it now accounts for ~20% of global tanker capacity. While a concerted... · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on Venezuela’s oil sector In light of the acute attention on Venezuela’s oil sector, this Update answers five key questions on the potential for oil production in the country. · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s economy post-Maduro: some lessons from history It’s still far too early to say if Venezuela’s post-Maduro government will seek to reverse the past few decades of economic mismanagement. But if it does, the experience from countries in Eastern... · 5 mins read
