Latin America Economics Update Three key challenges for Peru’s next president While the latest polls suggest that the race for Peru’s presidency remains open, a highly fragmented legislature looks the most likely outcome whoever wins. Navigating a divided congress will be a key... 7th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: rising NPLs will keep credit conditions tight The rise in Brazil’s non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to its highest level in over a decade doesn’t appear to be a threat to financial stability. But it is symptomatic of very high interest rates and... 1st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Potential implications of a regime change in Cuba The macroeconomic implications of regime change in Cuba – in whatever form – are likely to remain limited beyond Cuba’s own economy, given that the island does not play a major role on the global... 30th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the energy shock? The spike in energy prices has already caused Turkey’s central bank to tighten monetary policy and Pakistan may not be far behind. Most other central banks will be more reluctant to tighten but those... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: big near-term increase in oil output unlikely Disruption to oil production in the Middle East has turned attention to Venezuela as an alternative source of oil supply. The longer energy prices remain high, the greater the incentive for oil majors... 13th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm: net beneficiaries from the energy price shock Major Latin American economies are seen as potential beneficiaries of higher energy prices, reflecting in large part their stronger net energy export positions. This Update summarises the key... 12th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: the challenges facing President Kast Investors will welcome Chile’s new right-wing President José Antonio Kast – who will be sworn into office on Wednesday – but we doubt that he’ll be able to reinvigorate the copper sector and carry out... 10th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Modelling the scale of the energy market disruption This Update introduces our framework for estimating the scale of disruption to energy flows from events in the Middle East as well as three scenarios about how the conflict could play out from here... 9th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: no appetite for conventional fiscal tightening Colombian President Petro’s recently published draft pension decree would, if implemented, reduce the government’s financing needs. But it won’t make much of a dent in the large budget deficit and... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update How the new tariff backdrop affects Canada & Mexico In this Update, we answer some of the questions we have received on how the new US tariff regime (see here ) will impact Canada and Mexico. The big picture is that Canada and Mexico’s weighted-average... 25th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Elevated metals prices to support Andes’ terms of trade We think metals prices will fall back from current high levels, which will weigh on Latin American currencies. But prices will remain high by historical standards, which should keep external positions... 25th February 2026 · 4 mins read
