Latin America Economics Update Brazil: banking sector risks back in the spotlight The troubles at Brazilian bank Banco Master that have grabbed the headlines recently seem to be contained and, by most measures, the banking sector as a whole appears to be in good shape. But there... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico spared the worst, but growth will still be weak Mexico got off lightly from the tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday and the overall hit to the economy from US trade measures may be a bit smaller than we’d initially thought. Even so, we... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: budget deficit gives no room to cushion tariff hit The blowout in Mexico’s budget deficit to its largest level since the 1980s last year means that the government has little scope to offset the hit to the economy from US tariffs. There’ll probably be... 31st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Could the US coerce others to increase tariffs on China? The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China. Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for inflation and interest rates in Brazil? Brazil’s inflation outlook appears increasingly worrying, and the headline rate is likely to hit around 6% y/y by year-end, which is a bit higher than most expect. That’s likely to trigger a few more... 20th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: slowing but still a regional outperformer Peru’s economy grew strongly in 2024 but we think that a combination of domestic and external headwinds will cause growth to slow by more than most expect over the coming years. But it is still likely... 17th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s smaller primary deficit won’t solve fiscal woes The vote on Brazil’s 2025 budget (likely next week) will put renewed attention on whether the primary deficit will be kept low enough to comply with the government’s fiscal rules. But the key point is... 13th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s tariff cuts unlikely to curb high food inflation The announcement by Brazil’s government that it will cut import tariff rates to zero for several food products underscores the government’s concerns about rising inflation and its own falling... 10th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Trump’s tariffs and the implications for Mexico The 25% tariff on all US imports from Mexico that came into force today will, if it stays in place, knock Mexico’s economy into recession in the coming quarters. A contraction in GDP this year of 1%... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Trump hits Canada, China and Mexico with more tariffs President Donald Trump’s has claimed that there is “no room left’ for Canada and Mexico to avoid the imposition of 25% across-the-board tariffs at midnight tonight and he has reportedly signed a... 3rd March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: next phase of stabilisation plan more difficult Argentina’s President Javier Milei has pledged to remove capital controls but we think that a major change in Argentina’s exchange rate setting before the mid-term elections in October is unlikely... 26th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: another year of soft growth lies in store Colombia’s economy strengthened at the end of last year, with GDP expanding at its fastest pace in more than two years. But the combination of tight fiscal and monetary policy, alongside lower oil... 18th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Is Argentina's economy back? And what just happened in Turkey? 1742396400 Argentina's President Javier Milei has made impressive progress in turning the economy around, but the key question now is whether these achievements can be sustained.
