Latin America Economics Update Brazil: current account deficit becoming a bigger concern Brazil’s current account deficit has continued to widen and is likely to reach around 4.0% of GDP by year-end. Financing this should be manageable, provided the domestic policymaking backdrop doesn’t... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian peso set to be a regional underperformer We think Colombia’s fragile fiscal position – which could get even worse ahead of next year’s election – and a likely deterioration in the current account deficit will cause the peso to fall by more... 24th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Hopes for deeper Brazil-Mexico trade won’t materialise President Trump’s recent tariff threats have led to renewed impetus among Mexican and Brazilian authorities to boost trade ties between Latin America’s two largest two economies – and reduce their... 21st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a bumpy path to macro stability ahead The tension inherent in the Milei administration’s goals of using a strong exchange rate to lower inflation while trying to improve Argentina’s external balance sheet is becoming increasingly apparent... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Back into the tariff storm? Mexico’s government seems confident that it can negotiate an agreement to stave off President Trump’s threat of a 30% tariff that was delivered over the weekend. And even if the tariff came into force... 14th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Bonds & Equities Growth and trade risks to weigh on Mexican markets We think the outperformance of Mexican assets and the peso since “Liberation Day”, owing to large tariff exemptions for exports to the US, has largely run its course. Instead, we think the weak... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil faces Trump’s fire President Trump’s threat to put a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil is less about trade disputes and more about political disagreements, and so it’s harder to see an off-ramp for Brazil compared with... 10th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update US tariffs add to headwinds facing Chile’s copper sector Chile’s economy is the most exposed globally to US copper import tariffs. But while the impact would probably be small, it would add to deep-seated problems facing the copper sector. Register here to... 9th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am central banks to surprise on the dovish side Our views on the outlook for monetary policy in Latin America have been on the hawkish side for some time, but we now think that there’s scope for interest rates in many countries in the region to... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Manufacturers struggling to escape tariffs despite USMCA Data from the first two months of US tariffs being in effect suggest that both Canadian and Mexican manufacturers were struggling to make their exports USMCA-compliant, which poses a downward risk to... 24th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Petro dashes Colombia’s fiscal credibility The Colombian government’s fiscal plans unveiled late on Friday will have dashed any lingering hopes that policymakers would try to stabilise the public debt-to-GDP ratio, at least ahead of next year... 16th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal mess to push bond spreads wider Colombia’s fiscal problems have returned to the spotlight amid rumours that the government will suspend the fiscal rule. This has triggered a sell-off in the bond market, but it doesn’t look like the... 10th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Three lessons from Brazil’s recent easing cycles Brazil’s monetary tightening cycle is very close to being (or may already be) over, and attention is quickly turning to when and how far Copom will lower interest rates. Historically, the market has... 4th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
