In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the Republican-stacked Supreme Court. The upside risks to US inflation and downside risks to GDP would be reduced if the Supreme Court also rules against the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but it would be unlikely to mark the end of the tariff war given the various other routes through which the Trump administration could impose tariffs.
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