Canada Economics Weekly Developers continue to shrug off high interest rates The sharp rebounds in both residential and non-residential building permit issuance in July eased concerns that the construction sector is about to take a turn for the worse. Risks remain, however... 13th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update What happened to the boost from Trans Mountain? There was little impact on GDP from the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion because the jump in exports was supported by a drawdown of inventories from elevated levels, rather than... 11th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank may not blink despite higher unemployment The communications from the Bank of Canada this week suggest that the rise in the unemployment rate in August is unlikely to be enough to trigger larger interest rate cuts, which is probably a sign... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The rebound in employment in August should soothe fears about the risk that the economy is taking a turn for the worse, although the 0.2%-point jump in the unemployment rate to 6.6% presents clear... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) The economy looks to be entering a period of below-potential growth, characterised by excess supply in the goods and labour markets. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation, which we think... 5th September 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank puts up high bar for 50bp cut Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further cuts are likely. We expect 25 bp cuts at the final two meetings this... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep. 2024) Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further interest rate cuts are likely. The tone of the communications was less... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jul. 2024) The improvement in the goods trade balance in July was for the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. The weakness was due to sharp declines in motor vehicle trade... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy losing momentum Second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecast, but the evidence that growth slowed sharply over the quarter suggests that third-quarter growth will be much weaker... 30th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Canada EV tariffs; Is Trump warming to EVs? While Canada's tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles are unlikely to have a major impact on China's green exports, it is another example of broader global fracturing between China and the West... 30th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2 2024) Although second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside, the downgrade to GDP in June and preliminary estimate that GDP was unchanged again in July imply that third-quarter growth will be much... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Another meeting, another 25bp cut The dovish communication following the last meeting and the encouraging July CPI report leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. A 25bp cut, to 4.25%... 28th August 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly July CPI cements the case for another 25 bp cut The muted gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July make another interest rate cut at the September meeting seem inevitable. The Bank will be encouraged by the second soft... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jun. 2024) Despite the 0.1% m/m gain in June, retail sales volumes contracted last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth also slowed. Prospects for the third quarter look better, with the... 23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024) The softer monthly gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July suggest that the previous two months reflected normal volatility rather than a stalling of the downward trend in... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Warning signs for business investment The data this week cast doubt on the Bank of Canada’s view that the worst is already behind us for the economy, with manufacturing sales slumping to a two-and-a-half year low in June and non... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
