Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada races ahead of the pack The Bank of Canada’s second 25bp interest rate cut, taking the policy rate to 4.50%, was accompanied by a dovish shift in the communications. Our base case is that the Bank will continue to cut rates... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loosening cycle continues, September cut looks likely Alongside its decision to cut interest rates today, the Bank of Canada struck a more dovish tone than in June, supporting our forecast that another cut is coming at the next meeting in September. 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Stronger productivity growth ahead There are several structural factors that explain the underperformance of Canadian productivity growth compared to the US since the 1980s, but the underperformance in the last few years specifically... 23rd July 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly CPI data just about clear path for another rate cut Despite some measures of monthly core price growth remaining above the rates consistent with 2% inflation, the June CPI release on the whole supported the case for another interest rate cut from the... 19th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank set for another rate cut Despite stronger core price pressures in May and June, the totality of the data is still supportive of another interest rate cut next week. With GDP growth below potential and shelter inflation now... 17th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jul. 2024) Further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada should breathe some life into the housing market in the coming months, but the dimmer outlook for rent growth and apartment prices present downside... 16th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024) The Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median measures of core prices rose at an above-target monthly pace for the second month running in June. Nonetheless, with the Bank’s Business Outlook... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank surveys show need for looser policy The Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys point to weak GDP growth, show that firms’ wage expectations are now lower than their pre-pandemic peak, and suggest that consumers are increasingly... 15th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rate cuts will offer relief to housing this year The latest housing market data paint an almost ideal picture for the Bank of Canada, with activity improving, but little sign of a surge in house prices that could derail the downward trend in core... 12th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth set to slow Still elevated wage growth is partly due to earlier large gains in public sector pay, which are unlikely to be repeated. There are tentative signs that private sector wage growth is slowing, and the... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weakness boosts odds of another rate cut There was little to be encouraged by this week, with labour market conditions continuing to soften, the business surveys weak and the real estate board data pointing to a risk of renewed falls in... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jun. 2024) The modest decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate to 6.4% in June raise the chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again this month, and makes us more confident in our... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read