Canada Economics Weekly Modest fiscal stimulus unlikely to prevent June rate cut Budget 2024 made a bit of a splash thanks to the unexpected changes to capital gains taxes, but we do not think the new net spending measures were large enough to change the outlook for GDP growth or... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Freeland spends what she can in Budget 2024 Although Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland stuck to her previous pledge to keep the budget deficit below $40bn in the new fiscal year, she nonetheless spent the small windfall afforded to the... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 2024) The government’s policies to boost affordability for first-time buyers will have only a modest impact on demand, but they still add to our sense that house prices will rise in the coming years. While... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The March CPI data showed the third consecutive month of muted gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures, suggesting that there is a growing chance of the Bank cutting interest... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Feb. 2024) 15th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget unlikely to move the needle for interest rates Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s pledge to create the conditions needed for lower interest rates means the government is unlikely to announce much new near-term spending in Budget 2024 next week... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank leaves the door open for a June rate cut Governor Tiff Macklem sounded relatively dovish in the Bank of Canada’s press conference today, leaving the door open to an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June. 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Insolvency data make for grim reading The insolvency data released this week show the toll that high interest rates are putting on consumers and businesses. That is unlikely to be enough to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest... 5th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar. 2024) The jump in the unemployment rate in March, together with evidence of easing wage pressures, raises the chance of the Bank of Canada surprising markets with a rate cut next week, although our base... 5th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Case for cuts strengthening While the recent inflation data have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts, we suspect that the Bank of Canada will need at least one more month of similar data before it loosens policy. The... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The economy made a strong start to the year, but that was largely due to temporary factors that will soon fade. With spare capacity emerging, particularly in the labour market, downward progress on... 2nd April 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Mixed results from the Bank’s latest surveys The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys remain consistent with weak GDP growth and generally show that inflation expectations are normalising, but the latter are still too high... 1st April 2024 · 4 mins read