Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Q3 & Sep.)

The 1.0% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was not as bad as it looks, with most of the weakness due to a big drag from the volatile inventories component and the Bank of Canada likely to be...

29th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads

Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in...

29th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

How to think about US tariffs on oil imports

We are sceptical that US tariffs on oil imports will ever see the light of day. But if they did, they would probably result in lower oil production in Canada and Mexico, increased US gasoline prices...

27th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank likely to revert to 25bp cuts

The recent stronger price and activity data, along with the announcement this week of a sales-tax break over the festive period and stimulus cheques to come next year, means we now think the Bank of...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Sep. 2024)

The strong increase in retail sales volumes in September confirms that they grew by around 5% annualised last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth picked up strongly. The October...

22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

What is behind the slumping participation rate?

The slump in the participation rate this year at least partly reflects the cyclical weakness of hiring, which means that the labour market is weaker than the unemployment rate alone might suggest. The...

20th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Update

China green exports shrug off tariffs

China’s green export volumes rose in October and were just 3% shy of the record high reached in August. Chinese battery makers could be hit hard by President-elect Trump’s tariff proposals. But the...

20th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2024)

Lower mortgage rates appear to be finally sparking a recovery in the housing market, with home sales soaring to a two-and-a-half-year high last month and the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to...

19th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024)

With headline inflation still at target and given the Bank’s recent emphasis on the need to ensure that GDP growth and the labour market pick up again, the upside surprise to core inflation in October...

19th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank of Canada yet to shake off inflation risks

The US election outcome means that Canada and the US will not be trading friendship bracelets anytime soon and leaves the risks to inflation more finely balanced, but we still think that growth...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Manufacturing Sales (Sep. 2024)

Despite the 0.4% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in September, the data still appear consistent with the flash estimate that GDP rose by 0.3% that month. Although manufacturing has been...

15th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Trump win creates headache for Bank of Canada

This week's labour market data and Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada's October policy meeting were both overshadowed by Trump's win in the US election given its potential impact on the...

8th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct. 2024)

The muted rise in employment in October was even weaker than it seems, as, like in September, it was propped up by strong gains in youth employment. While the unchanged unemployment rate will reassure...

8th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower...

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada International Trade (Sep. 2024)

The improvement in the goods trade position in September was for all the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. While this suggests that net trade provided a small boost...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read