Bradley Saunders

Europe Economic Outlook

ECB to keep policy tight despite weak economy

We expect the euro-zone economy to struggle over the next 18 months, and a mild recession in the coming quarters looks more likely than not. Lower energy prices and improved global supply chain...

Capital Daily

How we see AI playing out in stock markets

We think that investors’ enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) will grow again next year and inflate a bubble in stock markets. This is just one of the many consequences that AI will have on the...

CE Spotlight

Spotlight 2023 - AI, Economies and Markets

CE Spotlight

Chapter 6: Blowing bubbles? AI's financial market implications

The AI revolution is likely to add to upward pressure on real and nominal bond yields, but should also be a positive for stock markets. One reason is the prospect of even faster growth in earnings...

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.)

Euro-zone industrial production fell in July and we think it will continue to do so over the remainder of the year in the face of weakening demand.

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2023)

Euro-zone retail sales fell in July and, in our view, will keep declining over the rest of the year as the effects of tighter monetary policy continue to feed through to consumers.

Capital Daily

Higher for (only a bit) longer?

Despite today’s rebound, the general fall in Treasury yields over the past week against a backdrop of mixed economic data suggests investors could be starting to come round to our view that price...

Capital Daily

The Fed looks to be done… so why aren’t Treasury yields?

The continued rise in Treasury yields, following what may well have been the Fed’s final interest rate hike last month, contrasts with the experience of recent tightening cycles. But we still expect...

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

“Soft landing” hopes boost dollar despite soft CPI report

In spite of last week’s weak US payrolls report and this week’s soft CPI data, the dollar has, on net, risen against all other major currencies this week. This may be partly a result of hawkish...

Capital Daily

Falling US inflation may continue to benefit “safe” assets

We think disinflationary pressures will help the Fed pivot to rate cuts sooner than investors expect, giving a boost to “safe” assets this year and next.

FX Markets Update

We expect SNB intervention to continue to buoy the franc

The appreciation in the Swiss franc this year has been largely at odds with moves in many of the factors which typically drive the currency. We believe this is mostly due to intervention from the...

Capital Daily

BoE decision another reason to expect lower gilt yields

Though investors appear to be increasingly moving towards our view of Bank Rate peaking at 5.50%, we think the levels priced into the market beyond this year – and, accordingly, expectations for gilt...

Capital Daily

JPY & MXN: trading places

We expect the fortunes of the Japanese yen and Mexican peso – which have both been outliers in different ways lately – to soon reverse, as souring risk appetite unwinds some “carry trade” and their...

Capital Daily

Investors are getting the yen right for the wrong reasons

Renewed murmurs of additional tweaks to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy are giving further impetus to the yen’s recent rally. Though we forecast the yen to strengthen...