The rebound in the goods trade surplus in August, to its joint-highest since the start of 2025, owes a fair bit to higher oil prices and frontrunning ahead of Section 338 tariffs. While it provides some upside risk to Stats Can’s advance estimate for a 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in August, we expect the surplus to narrow from here as the renewed trade war bites, weighing on the broader recovery in growth.
Subscriber content
Read this in full, free
Start a free trial and use one of your 10 free starter credits to unlock this piece.
