Canada Economics
This service provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for Canada’s economy and financial markets, offering both rapid responses to new data and developments, and more in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.
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- Bold views which frequently challenge conventional wisdom.
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Key Forecasts
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Main Economic & Market Forecasts |
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|
%q/q ann. (%y/y) unless stated |
Q4 2022 |
Q1 2023 |
Q2 2023 |
Q3 2023 |
Q4 2023 |
Q1 2024 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
|
GDP |
0.0 |
0.0 |
-1.5 |
-1.2 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
3.4 |
0.2 |
1.8 |
|
CPI Inflation |
6.7 |
5.3 |
3.0 |
2.6 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
6.8 |
3.2 |
1.8 |
|
Unemployment Rate (%) |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
|
Overnight Rate, End Period (%) |
4.25 |
4.50 |
4.50 |
4.00 |
3.50 |
3.00 |
4.00 |
3.50 |
2.50 |
|
10 Yr GoC., End Period (%) |
2.85 |
2.66 |
2.53 |
2.39 |
2.25 |
2.25 |
2.80 |
2.25 |
2.25 |
|
CADUSD, End Period |
0.73 |
0.72 |
0.70 |
0.71 |
0.72 |
0.72 |
0.74 |
0.72 |
0.75 |
|
Sources: Refinitiv, Capital Economics |
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Featured Economists
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Stephen Brown
Deputy Chief North America Economist
Stephen Brown joined Capital Economics in 2014 and has worked in both our London and Toronto offices. He is Deputy Chief North America Economist, with a specialisation in the Canadian economy. In 2021, Stephen was named the most accurate forecaster of the Canadian economy by Refinitiv, FocusEconomics and Consensus Economics. Stephen holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath and an MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics.
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Paul Ashworth
Chief North America Economist
Paul Ashworth is our Chief North America Economist, with overall responsibility for our coverage of the US and Canada. He joined Capital Economics in 2001 and has led our Toronto office since 2007. Paul joined Capital Economics from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) where he worked on their large-scale model of the global economy and was responsible for coverage of various countries, including Canada and Germany. He holds degrees in Mathematics and Economics from Strathclyde and Warwick Universities, and his PhD thesis focused on asymmetry and asymmetric adjustment in macroeconomics.
