Thomas Ryan

Thomas joined Capital Economics as a Property Economist in October 2023 and currently works on our US housing service. Prior to joining Capital Economics, he worked as an Economic & Markets Analyst at Longview Economics, covering developed markets. Thomas holds a BSc in Economics from the University of Warwick and an MSc in Economics from Queen’s University Belfast.

US Housing Market Update

What later Fed rate cuts mean for the housing market

A later start to Fed rate cuts than we anticipated will push the fall in mortgage rates and recovery in activity into the second half of the year. But as we think that the Fed Funds rate will...

25th April 2024 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (Mar. 2024)

The large uptick in new home sales in March is consistent with our above-consensus prediction that sales of new homes will climb to 750,000 by year end.

23rd April 2024 2 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Even if mortgage rates fall to 6.5% this year as we expect, homeowners will still be discouraged from listing their home, ensuring supply remains tight. At the same time, mortgaged buyer demand should...

18th April 2024 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Mar. 2024)

The fall in existing home sales in March was triggered by mortgage rates climbing back above 7% the month before. Even so, transactions remain above the trough at the end of last year, consistent with...

18th April 2024 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Housing Starts (Mar. 2024)

Housing starts weren’t able to build on the strong performance of the previous month in March, falling by the largest monthly amount since April 2020 in the early days of the pandemic. Although some...

16th April 2024 2 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Rising home listings won’t derail our price forecast

We think that reports of a wave of new resale supply coming onto the market are overblown. While the number of homes being listed for sale has increased compared to last year, it is still low by...

9th April 2024 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook

Houston climbs to the top of the apartment rankings

We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy higher in most of our 17 metros over the next year or so. Atlanta and Houston are two key exceptions to this rule...

4th April 2024 7 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (Mar. 2024)

Mortgage rates dipping back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase edge slightly higher in March. But recent increases in the 10-year Treasury yield point to mortgage rates climbing...

3rd April 2024 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan. 2024)

The fairly large gain in house prices in January points to a rebound in price growth driven by the fall in mortgage rates towards the end of last year. Although its early in the year, today’s data fit...

26th March 2024 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Renting to remain substantially cheaper than buying

As mortgage rates fall, we think the difference between the cost of buying and renting will narrow from the current all-time highs. But even by 2026, renting will remain by far the more cost-effective...

25th March 2024 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US New Home Sales (Feb. 2024)

February’s tiny drop in new home sales cut short what appeared to be the beginning of a recovery in recent months. Even though the drop was extremely small, it still potentially casts some doubt over...

25th March 2024 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

A tough year in store, but retail returns will be positive

This year is being flagged by many as the year the recovery starts, but there is still a substantial amount of pain (and value falls) to come. We think activity will gradually pick up in H2, but...

22nd March 2024 22 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Feb. 2024)

Existing home sales rose in February which we think largely reflects the sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But borrowing costs have been rising so far in 2024, which in the near...

21st March 2024 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Housing Starts (Feb. 2024)

The strong rebound in housing starts last month confirmed January’s slump was a weather-related blip. Although we expected starts to bounce back, February’s data were even stronger than we had...

19th March 2024 2 mins read

Event

US Real Estate Drop-In: Will southern metros continue to lead?

16th April 2024, 4:00PM BST

The pandemic-induced “great migration” fuelled rapid growth for apartment rents and house prices in southern metros. But a huge supply response in many of those apartment markets threatens to unwind…

US Housing Market Update

Southern house price outperformance to last

The national average house price has risen by nearly 50% since the start of the pandemic, but that masks a lot of regional variation. The rise in house prices in southern metros has been even larger...

18th March 2024 4 mins read