The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a breakdown in relations between the US and its traditional allies. Either could reshape supply chains and redirect global flows of technology, investment and finance. But the most likely scenario is that the global economy will still be coalescing into two blocs centred on the US and China four years from now. The economic consequences of this fracturing will depend on the exact form it takes, but the impact on aggregate global growth and trade volumes should be more limited than many seem to expect.
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