Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2025) The Brazilian central bank’s statement accompanying the decision to leave the Selic rate unchanged at 15.00% remained hawkish – but a little less so than at the last meeting in July. And with growth... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Counting the cost of crime in Latin America Growing public concerns about high crime levels and the apparent success of El Salvador in reducing levels of violence are making law and order a key issue in Latin America’s busy electoral calendar... 16th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be... 10th September 2025 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2025) The small fall in inflation in Brazil, to 5.1% y/y in August, is unlikely to change the central bank’s tone at its meeting next week. Interest rates will remain on hold at 15.00%. But with inflation... 10th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rubio in Lat Am, Brazil slows, Buenos Aires votes Marco Rubio's trip to Latin America this week highlighted the US’s growing focus on the region - and particularly efforts to curb drug trafficking. The next thing to watch is Colombia's narcotics... 5th September 2025 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Focus Fracturing in the Age of Trump The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a... 2nd September 2025 · 38 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2025) The slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth to 0.4% q/q in Q2 was driven in large part by a softening in domestic demand, which is likely to continue over the coming quarters. And with the inflation outlook... 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei on shakier ground, Brazil’s slowdown The decision by the Argentinian government to support the peso by raising required reserve ratios for banks highlights a point we’ve been making for a while – that the Milei administration is firmly... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in many parts of the region, and Brazil in particular, slowed in Q2... 26th August 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Worsening current account positions, Bolivia’s election One theme to emerge from the recently-released GDP figures is that domestic demand is increasingly leaking into imports, which will cause current account positions to worsen. External positions still... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates: where the market could be surprised Our EM interest rate forecasts generally lie on the dovish side. But, in particular, we think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts that will be delivered in Brazil and... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update LatAm debt risks easing, but still some pockets of concern Sovereign debt risks across Latin America have eased in the past year or so but there are still important nuances at a country level. Public finance risks in Brazil and Colombia are most concerning... 19th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Shift in rate expectations in Brazil, Chile set for slowdown The latest data out of Brazil point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q2, which, alongside softening inflation, has led to a shift in the debate towards interest rate cuts, perhaps by year-end. This... 15th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (July 2025) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 5.2% y/y in July, won’t change the outcome of the central bank’s next meeting in September, where interest rates will be left unchanged. But it lends support to our... 12th August 2025 · 2 mins read
