Latin America Economics Update Lat Am elections: about to shift back to the right? The low public support for (left-wing) incumbents in many of Latin America’s largest economies, taken together with weak public finances, suggests that the wave of the upcoming elections could act as... 21st May 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom: to hike or not to hike? China’s charm offensive The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy meeting last week have added fuel to the debate about whether the tightening cycle is now over. But perhaps the bigger point is that, when... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US and China try to shift the fracturing map The flurry of diplomatic activity by both the US and China this week underscores that geopolitical alliances in parts of the emerging world are fluid. We suspect that most countries in Latin America... 16th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lower oil prices, Banxico on track for another 50bp cut The downward revision to our oil price forecast is likely to exacerbate public finance risks in some of the region's major oil producers, notably Colombia and Ecuador. But other countries, especially... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: widening current account deficit leaves real at risk Brazil’s current account deficit has widened sharply over the past twelve months and we think it could reach 4.0-4.5% of GDP over the next couple of years. This leaves the real vulnerable to renewed... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (May 2025) Brazil’s central bank hiked the Selic rate by a further 50bp, to 14.75%, today and officials made clear in the accompanying statement that the tightening cycle is near an end. We are sticking with our... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: BanRep’s dovish shift, Copom nearing an end The unanimous decision by Colombia's central bank to lower its policy rate by 25bp, to 9.25%, earlier this week suggests that the Board is more dovish than we’d thought. That will raise fears, similar... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2025) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.5% y/y in the first half of April means that Copom will press ahead with a 50bp hike in the Selic rate at its next meeting in early May. But... 25th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin America generally got off lightly on ‘liberation day’, but the indirect... 15th April 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Mar. 2025) The jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.5% y/y in March looks set to be followed by further increases towards 6% y/y over the coming months. Copom will almost certainly deliver a bit more... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: banking sector risks back in the spotlight The troubles at Brazilian bank Banco Master that have grabbed the headlines recently seem to be contained and, by most measures, the banking sector as a whole appears to be in good shape. But there... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Getting off relatively lightly Governments across Latin America are likely to be breathing sighs of relief following US President Trump’s tariff announcement on Wednesday - they've ended up facing tariff rates at the lower end of... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar. 2025) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.3% y/y in the first half of March means that, with Copom shrugging off the weakness of the latest activity data and inflation likely to rise... 27th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The protectionist shift in the US will weigh heavily on Mexico’s economy, which at... 26th March 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our... 20th March 2025 · 21 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for inflation and interest rates in Brazil? Brazil’s inflation outlook appears increasingly worrying, and the headline rate is likely to hit around 6% y/y by year-end, which is a bit higher than most expect. That’s likely to trigger a few more... 20th March 2025 · 4 mins read
