Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela-Guyana tensions, new macro forecasts Venezuela’s increasingly assertive claims over the oil-rich Essequibo region, internationally recognised as part of Guyana, has raised the risk of some kind of miscalculation that leads to military... 8th December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico to lose their shine The surprising strength this year of the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, will fade in 2024 and growth over the next couple of years is likely to come in below consensus expectations... 7th December 2023 · 22 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2023) Brazil’s economy fared better than expected in Q3, expanding by 0.1% q/q, but the bigger picture is that the strong growth seen in the first half of the year has come to an end. 5th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Lessons from Brazil’s first sovereign ESG bond Brazil’s first sovereign ESG bond arrived last month amid much fanfare, but the reality is that any “ESG premium” looked fairly limited to us. And we think ESG bond premia, in general, will likely... 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s Messi of finances, job markets, Banxico to cut? The confirmation that Luis Caputo will be Argentina’s next economy minister reinforces our view that, while President-elect Javier Milei is likely to put the economy through shock therapy, it will be... 1st December 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Industrial Production (October 2023) The meagre 0.1% m/m expansion in Brazil’s industrial production in October adds to the signs that, after a very strong first half of the year, the economy has slowed sharply. This is likely to... 1st December 2023 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly COP-flation; declining deforestation; UK strike prices Whatever does or does not get agreed at COP28 in Dubai over the coming weeks, one way in which the event will set records is the staggering number of people in attendance. Meanwhile, the decline in... 30th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (November 2023) The decline in inflation in Brazil to 4.8% y/y in the middle of November means that – barring a major surprise in the full-month outturn – the central bank is on course to lower the Selic rate by... 28th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America: is another debt crisis brewing? Fiscal risks in Latin America have largely been out of the spotlight over the past year, but we think that public debt concerns will build over the coming years. Sovereign defaults seem more likely... 22nd November 2023 · 17 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (November 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 21st November 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Outperformance of Brazilian assets likely to end soon Growing external and domestic headwinds suggest to us that Brazilian financial markets will come under pressure over the short term and are unlikely to resume their outperformance beyond that. In view... 15th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom minutes, Chile’s constitution The minutes to last week's Brazilian central bank meeting revealed that policymakers remain concerned about inflationary pressures, with inflation expectations now considered to be "unanchored". A... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (October 2023) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.8% y/y in October confirms that the mini inflation cycle has now topped out. Inflation will continue to fall in the coming months, paving the way for further... 10th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal worries, Panama protests, Colombia rates Fiscal risks have reared their head again in Brazil amid comments from President Lula that the government may no longer aim for a balanced primary budget in 2024. In the near-term, any fiscal slippage... 3rd November 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BCB to continue to cut in 50bp steps Brazil’s central bank (BCB) cut the Selic rate by 50bp, to 12.25%, at yesterday’s Copom meeting and signalled again that further similar reductions lie in store over the next few meetings. Even so... 2nd November 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (October 2023) The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for October, of 5.0% y/y, confirms that the recent rise in inflation has now passed its peak and paves the way for another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 12.25... 26th October 2023 · 2 mins read
