Latin America Economics Update Brazil: labour market strength likely to worry Copom The latest data suggest that Brazil’s labour market isn’t softening as quickly as we and many others (not least the central bank) had anticipated. That’s keeping wage growth high and, while that may... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2023) The breakdown of Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures suggests that the economy is not as strong as the staggering 1.9% q/q rise in output would suggest. Even so, the sharp rise in output has prompted us to revise... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal rule inches closer, Chile’s bank risks The strong support for Brazil’s new fiscal framework in a vote in the lower house this week suggests that there’s more political appetite for austerity than we had anticipated. And, taken together... 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2023) The surprise fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.1% y/y in the first half of May, coming alongside this week’s approval of the new fiscal framework in the lower house of congress, suggests that the... 25th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Book A temporary rebound in growth The latest activity figures suggest that most Latin American economies held up better than we’d thought in the first few months of 2023. Mexico and Colombia made surprisingly strong starts to the year... 23rd May 2023 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Easing inflation, Chile shifts right, Mexico’s super-peso The raft of April inflation figures released this week showed a more marked decline in core price pressures. That being said, we don’t think inflation (or interest rates) will fall as far as many... 12th May 2023 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.2% y/y last month, was encouragingly broad based among the sub-categories of the CPI basket. But we think the central bank will want to see more evidence... 12th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The surprisingly strong 1.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that the economy fared a bit better than we’d expected in Q1. The risks to our GDP growth forecast for... 10th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom pours cold water on near-term rate cut hopes Brazilian policymakers gave a firm push back against any expectations for imminent monetary easing at yesterday’s central bank meeting, supporting our view that interest rates will be lowered a bit... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Strength in exports unlikely to last The surge in exports from Latin America’s major economies in March suggests that the upside risks to our GDP growth and currency forecasts are building. But with advanced economies poised to fall into... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Book Monetary policy stance slowly shifting The raft of inflation data over the past couple of weeks will have provided some relief for Latin American central banks, with headline rates in most countries now on a clear downward trajectory. In... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (April 2023) The drop in Brazilian inflation to a 30-month low of 4.2% y/y in the middle of April was mainly a result of a sharp decline in food inflation, which is at its lowest rate since the start of the... 26th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal rule, shifting monetary policy tide? The new fiscal framework presented to congress by Brazil’s government this week would, if implemented in full, go a long way towards stabilising Brazil's public finances. But there are several hurdles... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) Brazilian industrial production fell for a third consecutive month in February and, while the latest surveys suggest that industry held up a bit better in March, the bigger picture is that Q1 looks to... 19th April 2023 · 2 mins read
