Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will Copom break its forward guidance? Investors are no longer pricing in a 50bp interest rate cut at the Brazilian central bank meeting next month, despite the forward guidance at the March meeting signalling such a move. While we think... 18th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Services inflation concerns, Peru’s pension withdrawal The downside headline inflation surprises from some of the region's major economies this week mask the continued strength in underlying core services inflation. Stubborn underlying price pressures... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (March 2024) The slightly softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for March of 3.9% y/y keeps the door open to 50bp interest rate cuts at the Copom meetings both next month and in June. But with underlying... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s fiscal framework already on the rocks Media reports that Brazil’s government is already seeking to water down the latest fiscal rule (which has been in place for less than a year) reinforces the point we made when the rule was first... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s concerns, Maduro tests the US, Chile’s lithium The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last week confirmed our view that Copom will soon start to slow the pace of easing. Meanwhile, developments in Venezuela this week mean that it now... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Set for a slow recovery Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process... 26th March 2024 · 22 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s surpluses, consumer strength Argentina’s government ran another bumper primary budget surplus in February, taking President Milei a step closer to his target of achieving a balanced overall budget this year. But while the latest... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2024) The Brazilian central bank’s 50bp cut in the Selic rate to 10.75% today was never in doubt, but the change in the forward guidance supports our view that the easing cycle will slow to 25bp cuts soon... 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s debt swap, CLP, rate cuts The Argentine government’s successful local currency debt swap this week has reduced roll-over risks and, together with the softer-than-expected February inflation figure, appears to be giving... 15th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will... 13th March 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (February 2024) The Brazilian inflation data for February, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 4.5%, provided further evidence that underlying inflation pressures remain strong. This supports our view... 12th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s election campaign, Brazil’s G20 damp squib Campaigning for Mexico’s election on 2nd June officially kicks off today. The presidential front-runner, Claudia Sheinbaum, will probably continue the social policies of her predecessor but is likely... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2023) The stagnation in Brazil’s GDP in Q4 and the decline in household consumption confirmed that the economy lost momentum sharply and, while we expect a pick-up in growth in the coming quarters, we’re... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read