Capital Daily War and monetary policy, and what it means for markets Major central bank meetings this week will give investors an early sense of how monetary policymakers will respond to the war. We suspect there isn’t much good news in the offing for bonds. 16th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How might governments respond to the energy shock? If oil and natural gas prices remain high, it seems very likely that governments will step in with some fiscal support. The scale of that support is uncertain, but even if energy prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to stress readiness to respond to energy shock The ECB is not going to respond to the jump in energy prices by raising interest rates next week. But we expect it to state that the upside risks to inflation have increased, implying that the chance... 12th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update German economy still weak despite fiscal loosening Even though fiscal policy in Germany is being loosened significantly, signs of a recovery in activity have been tentative at best. Our base case remains that activity will pick up this year but a... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update EZ property yields unlikely to spike if conflict in Iran is short-lived Providing the conflict in Iran is short-lived, the impact on euro-zone commercial property values is likely to be small. However, a more prolonged conflict would weigh on property demand, especially... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (January) The falls in German industrial production in January and December erased most of the recovery seen in the previous months and left output close to its post-pandemic low. With the current spike in... 9th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone policymakers in wait-and-see mode, for now While the spike in energy prices and recent inflation data have reduced the chances of rate cuts this year, we do not expect the ECB to pivot to rate hikes either, provided energy prices do not rise... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ GDP likely to keep rising despite energy shock Data published this morning showed that the euro-zone economy grew at a decent pace in Q4 last year. If the recent increase in energy prices is sustained, it will be a small drag on growth but not... 6th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The jump in energy prices since the outbreak of the Iran conflict poses an upside risk to our inflation forecast and downside risk to our GDP forecast. However, even if prices remain at their current... 5th March 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update European office vacancy to stabilise this year A softening new supply pipeline and indications that demand is gradually improving suggest office vacancy in Europe should stabilise this year. That said, we expect that any falls will be small... 3rd March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (February 2026) February’s jump in core inflation, together with the increases in oil and gas prices since the weekend, reduce the chance of the ECB cutting interest rates this year. But as things stand, we don’t... 3rd March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest US tariffs, Germany’s recovery Following last week’s Supreme Court decision, we think policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic will aim to keep tariff rates close to the levels agreed last year. So our base case is that tariff... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ national inflation data (February) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation rose in February and that the core and services rate s were little changed. That is unlikely to change the ECBs... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (February 2026) February’s EC survey suggests that the economy is expanding at a decent pace and that price pressures in the services sectors are still fairly strong. But the labour market is still loosening. While... 26th February 2026 · 2 mins read
