Chief Economist's Note Key questions from Europe clients We have just returned from three days of client meetings in Europe where the biggest topics of interest were US tariffs, Germany’s fiscal stimulus, risks to public finances (including in France) and... 22nd May 2025
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May 2025) The euro-zone’s flash PMIs for May suggest that manufacturing output continues to be supported by the front-running of US tariffs. But the bigger picture is that the services sector weakened... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2025) Weaker rental growth and only a small fall in prime yields meant capital value growth slowed in Q1 in most of Europe. Looking ahead, while most European commercial property assets are not directly... 22nd May 2025 · 0 mins read
Event Markets Drop-In: Europe’s outperformance vs the state of US exceptionalism 1748527200 European stock markets surged earlier this year amid expectations of increased fiscal stimulus and an improving economic outlook.
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Expansion & integration: the future of EU enlargement The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but accession progress is likely to be slower than many expect. While some candidate countries stand a good... 20th May 2025 · 32 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Frankfurt rent surge will not stop a wider slowdown German office rents made stronger than expected gains in 2025 Q1. But not all markets were moving in line, with Frankfurt’s buoyancy a stark contrast to other cities. While that suggests risks remain... 20th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU faces “difficult second album” syndrome with ETS2 By seeking to extend the “polluter pays” principle to building owners and road users, the ‘sequel’ to the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme was always likely to run into public and political opposition... 19th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A deep dive into April's euro-zone inflation data April’s surprisingly large jump in services inflation appears to have been entirely an Easter timing effect that will reverse in May. Meanwhile, there are some near-term upside risks to headline... 19th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Is the EU at back of the queue for a trade “deal”? We suspect that the US and EU will reach an agreement to avert the 20% baseline US tariff which is scheduled to come into effect on 9th July - but we doubt that such an agreement is imminent... 16th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Bonds & Equities Three key questions on the outlook for Europe’s financial markets European markets have had a strong start to the year, and we are cautiously optimistic about the outlook over the next couple of years. We think European equities have turned a corner, while euro-zone... 15th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2025) Commercial property valuations worsened in Q1 this year as alternative asset yields rose while prime property yields edged slightly lower. Looking ahead, we think there is limited scope for falls in... 15th May 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update CE below consensus on prime office rent outlook There is broad agreement amongst forecasters that prime rental growth will slow over the next couple of years. However, we think the slowdown could be sharper than the consensus expects, especially if... 14th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone debt dynamics: no longer core vs periphery Most euro-zone governments look set to continue running large budget deficits in the coming years. This will support aggregate demand and is a key reason why ECB interest rates will stay higher than... 14th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Future of Europe – Is the renewed optimism justified? 1747922400 The shift in sentiment toward Europe – from deep pessimism to renewed optimism – has been striking.
Europe Economics Focus A European defence revolution? Europe’s economy will receive a modest boost from the German-led rise in defence spending over the next couple of years. The bigger question is whether it is the start of a move towards creating a... 13th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro’s share of global FX reserves set to rise? Recent actions by the Trump administration have raised doubts about the dollar’s safe-haven credentials, and could contribute to a further decline in its share of global FX reserves. At the same time... 13th May 2025 · 5 mins read
