Euro-zone Data Response

Euro-zone Unemployment (October)

The record-low euro-zone unemployment rate of 6.5% in October is likely to be as good as it gets for the region’s labour market. But the rise in unemployment from here will probably be small.  

Euro-zone Data Response

Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.)

Euro-zone inflation may now be past its peak but with the core measure unchanged in November and set to remain well above 2% next year, we expect the ECB to hike rates by 50bp or 75bp in December.

Euro-zone Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (Nov.)

Euro-zone Data Response

Germany Flash Inflation (November)

November’s fall in headline inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone headline rate will come in lower than we had anticipated when it is published tomorrow, and is now close to a peak...

Europe Commercial Property Update

Italian prime office rents to fall next year

The sharp fall in employment we expect next year will drag on Italian office rents. While prime rents should hold up better than the wider market as the shift to the best quality space continues, we...

Euro-zone Data Response

EC Survey and Spain HICP (November)

The small increase in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for November suggests that prospects for the euro-zone economy may no longer be deteriorating. We still expect a recession, but it is...

Euro-zone Rapid Response

EC Survey & German Flash Inflation (Nov.)

Euro-zone Economics Weekly

75bp hike still on the table, QT talk intensifying

Comments by ECB officials suggest that a slowdown in the pace of tightening, from a 75bp to a 50bp hike, still looks likely in December. But it’s not yet a done deal, with some officials seemingly...

Euro-zone Rapid Response

ECB Minutes (Oct.)

Euro-zone Data Response

German Ifo Survey (Nov.)

The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in November does not change the big picture that the German economy is likely to contract in Q4.

Euro-zone Rapid Response

German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (November)

Euro-zone Economics Update

Euro-zone inflation is nearing its peak

We think that headline inflation in the euro-zone is nearing its peak and will begin to fall quite sharply early next year. But the core rate will probably peak a little later and decline more slowly...

Euro-zone Data Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November)

The flash PMIs for November add to the evidence that the economy will contract in Q4. The price indices suggest that inflation will soon peak, but they remain extremely high by past standards.