Europe Economics Update French PM's gambit will not end budget stalemate The French prime minister’s decision to call an early vote of confidence is most likely to trigger his replacement with yet another prime minister or (less likely) fresh legislative elections. Either... 26th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Question marks over recovery, small progress on trade Economic data released this week cast some doubt on our forecast that euro-zone GDP growth will accelerate in the latter part of this year. Meanwhile, the EU-US joint statement on trade, also released... 22nd August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth will fall further this year The sharp rise in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.0% in Q2 was entirely due to base effects. In the coming quarters the labour market should continue cooling, causing negotiated wage growth (and... 22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone core inflation to fall to 2% by December July’s increase in core goods inflation in the euro-zone looks like a one-off, whereas services inflation is likely to keep falling. We forecast core inflation to fall from 2.3% in July to 2.0% by... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Battery demand powers China’s green exports Despite signs of weakness in the broader trade data, China’s New Three export volumes reached a record high in July. This was mainly driven by a rise in exports of lithium-ion batteries. And while... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2025) Tariff uncertainty weighed on investment and industrial property in particular in Q2. However, we don’t expect much recovery in H2 as long-term interest rates rise and economic growth softens. Indeed... 20th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2025) Commercial property valuations improved in Q2 this year as alternative asset yields fell even though prime property yields edged slightly lower. Looking ahead, we think government bond yields will... 18th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ trade surplus down but exports won’t keep falling The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed sharply in June as exports to the US dropped. But timelier business surveys suggest that overall goods export growth will pick up in the second half of the... 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tourists adjusting timing of holidays but not location Despite concerns that over-crowding and heatwaves might reduce tourism to southern Europe, trips to the region are growing at a faster rate than in northern Europe. Instead, tourism has been growing... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin and the euro-zone economy We do not expect President Trump’s meeting with President Putin to make a breakthrough on the Ukraine conflict. But even if there is a "deal" in the coming months the implications for the wider... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish industrial rent outlook solid, but little room for yield falls The solid pace of economic growth in Spain over the next couple of years will continue to support robust rates of industrial rental growth. However, we don’t think that will be enough to justify large... 14th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response GDP second estimate, Employment (Q2) and IP (June) Data released today confirm that the euro-zone economy expanded at only a modest pace in Q2 and that the labour market is cooling. We are forecasting a temporary pick-up in growth next year as a... 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Global CRE needs a reset for real recovery to take hold With interest rates staying high and closed-end funds already sitting on a large volume of investors’ capital, global real estate fundraising looks set to stay in the doldrums. We think the sector... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus “Euro safe assets” are a pipe dream Policymakers’ hopes of creating a new euro “safe asset” are likely to be unfulfilled for many years to come. The supply of safe bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions will rise in... 12th August 2025 · 14 mins read
