Europe Economics Update ECB likely to hike just once more While the ECB’s decision to leave rates unchanged was expected, the policy statement and President Lagarde’s remarks suggest to us that the Bank is becoming more confident that underlying inflation is... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment recovery delayed, not derailed Elevated interest rates and tightening credit standards will weigh on investment activity over the rest of this year and into early 2027. However, we expect euro-zone investment to rise by 10%-15% y/y... 29th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (October 2026) The small fall in the Economic Sentiment Indicator in October leaves it consistent with solid GDP growth in Q4 and suggests that the economy may be holding up a little better than implied by the PMIs... 29th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weak credit demand adds to downside growth risks The ECB’s Q3 Bank Lending Survey showed credit standards tightening and demand weakening across most loan categories. This supports our view that GDP growth slowed to a crawl in Q3, while banks’... 27th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update France's fiscal warning to the rest of the world The sell-off in French bonds is a warning for governments elsewhere, but we doubt it is the start of a broad fiscal crisis. Few advanced economies have comparably poor fiscal arithmetic, and those... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Why is France being singled out by bond markets? Rising interest rates and weak growth have made debt dynamics more challenging everywhere. What makes France stand out are the size of the fiscal adjustment needed to stabilise the debt ratio and the... 26th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Tech earnings vs central bank caution A hectic week for politics, central banks and corporate earnings reports may well be dominated by continued jitters around the sustainability of the AI equity boom. Over the past couple of weeks, they... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Could France’s fiscal troubles be good news for Gilts? We expect the spillovers to the Gilt market from a further worsening in France’s fiscal problems to be limited. If anything, the balance of risks points to further French fiscal stress putting... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No quick fix in sight for France; ECB to hold rates This week’s PMI data suggest that France’s political and fiscal crises are taking an increasing toll on the economic outlook. And with little prospect of meaningful fiscal consolidation before next... 23rd October 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2026) Although the euro-zone’s composite PMI fell in October, it remains consistent with modest positive growth, suggesting that the economy has remained resilient in the face of the energy shock. And while... 23rd October 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tight supply to sustain industrial rents in main German hubs The unusually low share of take-up in the main German industrial hubs appears to reflect a shortage of available space rather than weak demand. While space under construction is rising, this is not... 22nd October 2026 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will hike only once more The latest evidence suggests that the euro-zone economy remains fairly resilient in the face of the Iran war and that, despite elevated energy prices, underlying price and wage pressures have not... 21st October 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily French sovereign bonds not OAT of the woods While renewed hopes of a peace in the Middle East and lower energy prices have brought some relief to government bond markets today, the widening of the spread between French sovereign bonds and those... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are the contagion risks from France? France appears to be heading for a fiscal crisis which could lead to contagion and potentially a recession in the euro-zone. However, several factors mean the contagion risks to other countries’ bond... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Activity data soft in Q3, fiscal policy looser in 2027 The latest official activity data present a downside risk to our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. But even if growth is slower than we had anticipated in the third quarter, we wouldn't revise... 16th October 2026 · 6 mins read
