Global Commercial Property Update How will AI job cuts influence office demand? Tech occupations are the most exposed to the impact of AI, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that sector will see the most job losses. That said, a decline in the share of pre-lets to the sector in... 10th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower gas price forecasts, ECB to leave rates unchanged We are revising our forecast for ECB policy rates (again!) to reflect our reassessment of the outlook for European natural gas prices. In our new baseline scenario for gas prices, euro-zone inflation... 10th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Retail and hospitality sectors to bear the brunt of Iran War The effects of the Iran war will feed through to property occupiers through two main channels: higher energy costs and lower household disposable income growth. The impact on sectors will vary based... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Cash buffers reduce risks from German open-ended real estate funds Despite recent redemption suspensions, net outflows from open-ended real estate funds in Germany have been small as a share of net asset value while cash buffers are higher than some other large... 7th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s borrowing costs in the spotlight again The rise in energy prices and the slight loss of popularity of Giorgia Meloni’s government have caused Italy’s bond yields to rise more than France's since the start of the Iran conflict. We now think... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Bonds Focus The retreat from sovereign bond duration Supply/demand dynamics in long-dated sovereign debt markets are deteriorating, with demand from traditional sources waning and supply remaining strong. And now fiscal support in response to the Iran... 2nd April 2026 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Update Quantifying the indirect effects of energy on inflation Energy inflation jumped in March and in our baseline scenario it increases further, adding another half a percentage point to headline inflation this year. Firms passing on higher energy costs add a... 1st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) This Europe Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could influence inflation, GDP... 31st March 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (March) The jump in headline inflation in March was almost entirely due to higher fuel prices and tells us little about what will happen to food or core inflation in the coming months. In our baseline... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (March 2026) March’s EC survey suggests that the jump in energy prices has had a very limited impact on activity so far, while services firms’ selling price expectations are little changed. 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Markets’ pain intensifies; fiscal and inflation risks up next? The war’s effects on markets may continue to elude an easy solve, but at least investors aren’t too concerned, yet, about fiscal and inflation risks. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: China’s shock to the eurozone – economic fallout and policy choices 23rd April 2026, 3:00PM BST China’s economic rise has long benefited European households and firms.
Europe Economics Weekly Effects of Iran conflict beginning to show up There were clear signs this week that the Iran conflict is causing inflation and inflation expectations to rise in the euro-zone. Next week we expect to learn that headline inflation jumped from 1.9%... 27th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2026) The fall in the German Ifo BCI and the Composite PMI in March suggest that the renewed rise in energy prices could derail the tentative recovery in the German economy seen in recent months. We expect... 25th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Alternative real estate sectors set to gain more ground In an environment of relatively weak economic growth, alternative sectors stand to benefit from a lower reliance on cyclical drivers, and support from structural trends that will drive long-term... 24th March 2026 · 3 mins read
