India Economics Update Benefits of India-EU trade deal shouldn’t be underplayed It may be tempting to conclude that the long-awaited India-EU trade deal announced today will only have a small economic impact. After all, key sectors such as agriculture remain off the table and the... 27th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (January 2026) The weaker-than-expected German Ifo in January pours some cold water on expectations that the German economy might be finally turning the corner. The fiscal stimulus should still cause growth to pick... 26th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Greenland tensions aftermath, Germany finally recovering? We think that this week's flare-up in EU-US tensions over Greenland is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the euro-zone economy. Meanwhile, data out of Germany suggest its economy may be turning a... 23rd January 2026 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone PMIs (January 2026) While the new year has begun with a lot of geopolitical turbulence, the flash PMIs for January suggest that the euro-zone economy is still expanding at a moderate pace while price pressures rose a... 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Trump’s threats strain US-Europe energy relationship Strains in US-Europe relations under President Trump mean that European policymakers may perceive the region’s growing dependence on the US for energy to be a strategic vulnerability. This is not as... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Fundamentals support Dublin industrial revival The fortunes of Dublin’s logistics markets are improving after a post-pandemic hangover. Sentiment is currently strong, while a solid economic outlook and tight supply provide reasons to be optimistic... 21st January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany: AfD to keep shaping policy from the sidelines The Alternative für Deutschland’s continued rise in the polls has been accompanied by renewed calls for mainstream German parties to abandon their “firewall” policy. But as long as the AfD clings on... 21st January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Pick-up in euro-zone services inflation won’t last December’s inflation data add weight to our view that the pick-up in services inflation towards the end of last year was, to coin a phrase, transitory. We expect it to decline in January and trend... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe will move cautiously over Greenland threats If implemented and sustained for a long period, the new tariffs that President Trump has threatened over the Greenland dispute could cost the euro-zone economy something between 0.2% and 0.5% of GDP... 19th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: The Greenland Crisis – What to make of this US-Europe conflict? 19th January 2026, 11:00AM GMT The transatlantic row over Greenland’s sovereignty intensified over the weekend following Donald Trump’s threat to ratchet up tariffs on European economies until Denmark agrees to sell.
Global Economics Rapid Response Greenland tariffs: the political consequences would trump the economic It remains unclear whether President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries unless a deal is reached to acquire Greenland will ever materialise. But if it does, the economic... 18th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB independence is not at risk The ECB does not face the same imminent threat to its independence as the US Fed, but it could come under more pressure from politicians in future. However, it would be much harder for governments to... 16th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone households still cautious We learnt this week that the euro-zone’s household saving rate remained very high in Q3 last year. With households still reporting low levels of confidence, we think they will continue to be reluctant... 16th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Digital euro could yet become a reality The chance of the ECB launching a digital euro has risen over the past year. However, it is unlikely to see light of day until 2029 at the earliest and, by design, total holdings are likely to be... 16th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How long will Portugal’s outperformance last? Portugal’s economy has benefited from a series of favourable developments in recent years, causing it to outperform most other euro-zone countries. We think this will continue over the next couple of... 15th January 2026 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry is in structural decline Euro-zone industrial production rose in November, and the outlook for certain sectors – such as defence and pharmaceuticals – is fairly bright. But overall, industry is likely to remain weak and it... 15th January 2026 · 5 mins read
