Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Weak growth, signs inflation easing, estimating r* A deluge of data this week has underlined how weak economic activity is in the euro-zone but offers some hope that core inflation may be easing. Meanwhile, we do not expect the ECB’s new analysis of... 31st January 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany states, France, Spain Flash HICP (Jan. 2025) 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We see Bund yields falling this year even if UST yields don’t Even though we forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to end 2025 close to its current level, we anticipate that the 10-year Bund yield will fall over the rest of the year as the ECB, unlike the Fed... 30th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update EC survey points to stagnation and risks to inflation January’s EC survey points to continued weak GDP growth at best. While it also suggests that there are some upside risks to inflation in the near term, firms’ employment expectations and labour... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB has much further to go It’s clear that after cutting its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today, the ECB expects to reduce rates further in the coming months. We think that weak growth and inflation will mean that the Bank has... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update European CRE sentiment too weak to set recovery alight in 2025 The latest RICS survey showed further improvement in occupier and investor demand in Europe. However, with the uptick in sentiment only small, the market looks to be struggling to gain momentum... 30th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (January 2024) The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today came as no surprise and the accompanying statement implies that more cuts are coming, as is widely anticipated. We think the Bank will... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2024) & Unemployment (Dec.) The stagnation in euro-zone GDP in Q4 supports our view that the region’s economic prospects are worse than most think. We expect this to prompt the ECB to cut interest rates by more this year than is... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy GDP (Q4 2024) With national data now available for all larger euro-zone countries, it looks as if GDP growth in the region slowed to 0.1% q/q or even zero in Q4 last year. (Euro-zone GDP data are out at 10.00 GMT.)... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lower interest rates boosting euro-zone bank lending Euro-zone money and lending growth data paint a rosier picture of the economy’s near-term prospects than the latest business surveys and suggest that the impact of ECB rate cuts is feeding through... 29th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain GDP (Q4 2024) The 0.8% q/q increase in Spain’s GDP in Q4 2024 was a bit stronger than expected as the economy brushed off the negative effects of the flooding in Valencia. The economy is likely to continue to... 29th January 2025 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Update Looming supply crunch supports EU carbon prices Although European natural gas prices will still influence EU carbon prices in the near-term, investors’ recent optimism suggests that expectations for a tighter carbon market down the line are... 28th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (January 2025) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) remained in contractionary territory in January which supports the consensus and our own view that that Germany will eke out only a small expansion in GDP this... 27th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: EU still “in for tariffs”, ECB set for another rate cut Though President Trump reserved his main tariff threats for others this week, he still complained about the EU’s trade surplus with the US and suggested the bloc is “in for tariffs”. We think US... 24th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Bonds Update How much yield divergence can we expect this year? We forecast bond yields to fall over the rest of 2025 in Germany, the UK, and New Zealand, even though we think the relief rally in US Treasuries is over. And we anticipate yields to rise in Japan. 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (January 2025) We expect data released next week to show that the euro-zone economy grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q4, and January’s PMIs point to a similarly poor performance at the start of Q1 . 24th January 2025 · 2 mins read
