ECB Watch “Dovish” 25bp rate cut likely next week While there is a strong case for the ECB to accelerate the pace of policy easing by delivering a 50bp cut next week, a majority of the Governing Council seems to prefer 25bp, which would bring the... 5th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (October 2024) October’s decline in euro-zone retail sales followed a good third quarter for retailers. We suspect that the strength in sales in Q3 was just a one off and that growth will be subdued in the coming... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will there be a retail renaissance in Paris? Paris retail rents surged in Q3 raising hopes for a sustained revival. But this jump probably reflects a temporary boost from the Olympics and momentum is expected to fade next year. Despite this, we... 4th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is France the new Greece? France is unlikely to have a government with a mandate to tighten fiscal policy anytime soon, so the risks to its bond market will continue to grow. Its debt dynamics are not as bad as those of Greece... 3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Is France’s political crisis the next euro-zone debt crisis? 1733238000 The French government is on the brink of collapse, the country’s fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and its bonds are trading like their Greek counterparts.
Event Europe Drop-In: The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry 1733929200 What’s the outlook for struggling German auto manufacturers? How big a threat do Donald Trump and Chinese imports present?
Europe Economics Weekly Growth, inflation and fiscal policy Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of... 29th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see more trouble ahead for French OATs The spread between 10-year French and German government bond yields has risen again, and we forecast that it will continue to trend up next year. 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (November 2024) The continued strength of euro-zone services inflation in November reduces the chance that the ECB will cut interest rates by 50bp in December. But one-off base effects stopped services inflation from... 29th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Little upside risks for Bund yields from US tariff threat National inflation data for November released today suggest that euro-zone inflation has edged up this month, but we think this is just a blip. We still expect inflation to drop below target next year... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Takeaways from our Property in 2025 roundtables This week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for European commercial property. This Update outlines our thoughts on some of the most... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Don’t expect a big fiscal stimulus in Germany It now seems increasingly likely that, as we had been expecting, Germany will loosen its strict fiscal rule after the upcoming general election. However, hopes of a big fiscal stimulus are likely to... 28th November 2024 · 4 mins read
