Europe Economics Update Portugal election to lead to policy continuation Next week’s election in Portugal is likely to have little impact on the country’s economic prospects, not least because it looks like it will be a repeat of last year’s election results. Regardless of... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2025) Euro-zone GDP expanded at a decent pace in Q1 but that was partly due to temporary tariff front-running effects. And while higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth... 9th May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Is the UK-US deal a good omen for the EU? EU policymakers won’t have felt too excited about the US-UK trade deal announced yesterday. The deal is limited in scope, the details are yet to be finalised, and the EU might find it more challenging... 9th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (March) The big rise in German industrial output and orders in March confirms that conditions in the sector have stabilised in recent months. However, some of the strength might be due to tariff front running... 8th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone investment outlook downgraded given tariff uncertainty The gradual recovery in European investment continued in Q1 but going forward transaction totals are likely to be weak as a result of uncertainty around tariffs and the potential downside to property... 7th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (March 2025) Euro-zone retail sales declined in March, reversing part of the increase in February. We expect spending growth to remain weak for the rest of the year as any support from lower interest rates is... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Still little sign of tariff impact, Spanish blackout hit Data released this week suggest that US tariffs have not had a noticeable impact on euro-zone activity yet. But we still think they will cause GDP growth to grind to a halt in the next six months... 2nd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (April 2025) April’s rise in services inflation is unlikely to worry the ECB too much as it was probably driven mainly by Easter timing effects. We think services inflation will start falling again in the coming... 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Iberian blackout puts spotlight on grid infrastructure It’s possible that the recent blackout on the Iberian peninsula goes down in history as a catalyst for widescale electricity grid upgrades which ultimately help to bolster the pace of the renewable... 1st May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone equity outperformance is on borrowed time We think the recent outperformance of euro-zone equities over US ones has run its course. 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Tariffs and green tech; Canada’s “carbon tax” election New US tariffs announced this month will raise the cost of green technologies and add to the growing list of headwinds facing the green transition under President Trump. Meanwhile, the Liberals’... 30th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France & Italy Flash Inflation (April) National data published so far suggest that euro-zone inflation remained at 2.2% in April, and that core inflation probably rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. (Euro-zone data due on Friday 2 nd May). But with... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2025) The acceleration in euro-zone GDP growth in Q1, to 0.4% q/q, suggests the economy started the year on a stronger footing than we expected and activity surveys suggested. Nevertheless, we still expect... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (April 2025) The ESI for April point to a small hit to the euro-zone from US tariffs in April and suggest that growth remained quite weak. With the drag from tariffs set to intensify, we expect euro-zone GDP to... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain & Sweden GDP (Q1) Spain’s rapid economic growth (+0.6% q/q in Q1) is likely to continue for some time yet, despite trade uncertainty. While consumption and government spending were weaker than expected in Q1, we think... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
