Event Real Estate Drop-In: How the pandemic continues to shape UK and European real estate markets 20th May 2025, 1:00PM BST Five years on and the pandemic is continuing to impact real estate, influencing how we work, where we live and how we spend. But while some structural shifts are now better understood, there’s...
Event Drop-In: The Future of Europe – Is the renewed optimism justified? 1747922400 The shift in sentiment toward Europe – from deep pessimism to renewed optimism – has been striking.
Event Drop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverging 1739372400 Our latest Global Inflation Watch publication highlights a growing divergence between US and European inflation dynamics and the uncertainties facing the world e
Europe Commercial Property Update Risk of CRE debt distress greater in the EZ than the UK A stabilisation in capital values and decline in interest rates have sparked optimism that we may be past the worst of the real estate debt refinancing challenge. That indeed looks to be the case in... 6th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec. 24) December’s fall in euro-zone retail sales means that growth over Q4 as a whole slowed substantially. We suspect that spending growth will remain subdued in the coming quarters. 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update COVID five years on: How the pandemic continues to shape real estate markets Five years on from the start of the pandemic and the structural shifts it brought about continue to underpin real estate performance. Over the coming weeks, we will publish a series of pieces that... 5th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is this the start of a major central bank divergence? We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss the outlook for interest rates in major advanced economies as the Fed hit the pause button while the ECB cut again. (See a recording here .) The... 4th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Focus German economy post-election: from bad to not much better We expect Germany’s next government to reform the national fiscal rule to allow some tax cuts and increased public investment. But it is likely to make slow progress on structural reforms such as... 4th February 2025 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Update Four quick points on Europe and the "trade war" This weekend’s US trade policy announcements and Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Europe raise the question of whether there is a bigger risk to the euro-zone than we had thought. This Update... 3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (January 2025) January’s inflation data won’t change ECB policymakers’ minds about the likely near-term path for interest rates. The fact that services inflation remained high will mean that they will prefer to... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How far will the EU go on Capital Markets Union? EU policymakers have stepped up their calls for progress towards Capital Markets Union and there will be steps in that direction in the coming years. But we aren’t holding our breath for major change... 31st January 2025 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Weak growth, signs inflation easing, estimating r* A deluge of data this week has underlined how weak economic activity is in the euro-zone but offers some hope that core inflation may be easing. Meanwhile, we do not expect the ECB’s new analysis of... 31st January 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany states, France, Spain Flash HICP (Jan. 2025) 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We see Bund yields falling this year even if UST yields don’t Even though we forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to end 2025 close to its current level, we anticipate that the 10-year Bund yield will fall over the rest of the year as the ECB, unlike the Fed... 30th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update EC survey points to stagnation and risks to inflation January’s EC survey points to continued weak GDP growth at best. While it also suggests that there are some upside risks to inflation in the near term, firms’ employment expectations and labour... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB has much further to go It’s clear that after cutting its deposit rate from 3% to 2.75% today, the ECB expects to reduce rates further in the coming months. We think that weak growth and inflation will mean that the Bank has... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
