Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Fiscal policy and the ECB This week has brought a fundamental shift in Europe’s approach to defence spending and fiscal policy more generally. While there are reasons to be cautious about the boost that this will provide to... 7th March 2025 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Higher Bund yields probably here to stay The shift in the ECB’s tone today to acknowledge the increased uncertainty surrounding the outlook has pushed euro-zone bond yields up slightly, extending their surge over the past few days. Given... 6th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Outlook Climate Economics Outlook: Technical progress outweighs political pushback The push back against the costs of climate policy, alongside the fracturing of the global economy, risks raising the cost of the green transition and slowing progress reducing emissions this decade... 6th March 2025 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB not done cutting yet Alongside today’s decision to cut the deposit rate from 2.75% to 2.50%, the ECB adjusted its messaging to signal that the outlook for monetary policy has become less clear. We still think that the... 6th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Some new market forecasts for a changing world The unravelling of US exceptionalism in stock markets since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January has been mainly driven by concerns about the US’ dominance of AI and the relative... 6th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (March 2025) The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.75% to 2.50% today came alongside new language which shows that policymakers are becoming less certain about the future path of interest rates. Looser... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update German yields, stocks, and the euro surge – what next? In this Update, we put into context the recent surges in Bund yields, German equities, and the euro that have been triggered by expectations of a significant loosening of fiscal policy in Europe’s... 6th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany loosens the purse strings The agreement on a reform of the national fiscal rule reached by Germany’s likely next coalition partners suggests they will implement a significant fiscal stimulus of perhaps around 1% to 2% of GDP... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German fiscal announcement The announcement by Germany’s Chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, that the parties which are likely to form the next government have agreed to substantially boost defence and infrastructure... 4th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the US bloc splintering? The events of the past two weeks have called into question whether the US is severing ties not just with adversaries such as China but also allies, including Canada, Mexico and the European Union... 4th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan. 2025) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate in January remained unchanged at its record low of 6.2% for a fourth consecutive month, but other data show that labour demand is weakening. With the economy growing... 4th March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (February 2025) February’s decline in headline inflation was encouraging because it was partly due to lower services inflation. We expect the headline rate to remain above 2% throughout most of this year but services... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The unravelling of US exceptionalism This week’s pull-back in the US stock market and the unravelling of US exceptionalism in equities since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January have been driven by growing concerns... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Risks to EU carbon policy; China reforms renewables The EU’s climate policy announcements this week point to a shift in tone that suggests a lower willingness to impose costs on private firms. That poses a growing risk to the future of the bloc’s... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
