Europe Commercial Property Update Q1 RICS survey highlights weak momentum in European CRE The RICS survey showed that the recovery in occupier and investor demand remained muted in Q1 and uncertainty about tariffs means this picture is unlikely to change in the near term. 24th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (April 2025) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in April suggests that US tariffs have not yet meaningfully hit economic activity in Germany, though some sentiment indicators have fallen sharply. But... 24th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April 2025) April’s euro-zone flash PMIs suggest that the immediate damage to production from US trade policy has been limited so far. But firms reported some front-loading of orders, so output might take a... 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in Bunds and euro has run its course Policymakers at the ECB appear to agree with us that risks to growth and inflation are increasingly skewed to the downside, supporting our view that the 10-year German Bund yield will stay around its... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: ECB; pharma tariff front-running; France’s budget This week brought some evidence that front-running US tariffs boosted euro-zone industrial production in Q1, but this effect will of course be “transitory”. Meanwhile, statements from France’s finance... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB leaning towards further rate cuts The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.5% to 2.25% today was expected. And the monetary policy statement sent a clear signal that the Bank will cut rates further to counter the impact of... 17th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q1 2025) Aside from some industrial assets, commercial property is not directly impacted by higher tariffs. However, uncertainty and the likelihood that economic growth slows will likely hold back investment... 17th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is German retail making a comeback? German retail performance has been among the worst in the euro-zone for most of the last decade. A combination of declining vacancy, better affordability and reduced online leakage point to a relative... 16th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone disinflation remains on track March’s decline in services inflation was entirely due to transport, which in turn reflected past moves in oil prices and Easter timing effects. But the fundamentals still point to continued declines... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update European Union reluctant to retaliate Although the EU is likely to respond to US tariffs at some point, recent developments reinforce our view that it will move slowly and that any retaliation will be moderate. This should limit the... 15th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (February 2025) The increase in euro-zone industrial production for a second consecutive month in February is not a sign of a sustained recovery for the sector. Instead, it is partly due to manufacturers ramping up... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ bank lending in decent shape before US tariff shock The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey paints a positive picture of the housing market. Conditions for consumer credit and corporate loans were less encouraging, and the tariff chaos of the past two weeks... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: The fallout from tariff mayhem in EZ markets This week’s historic changes in US trade policy and the associated market fallout point in the direction of a weaker euro-zone economy, lower inflation and looser monetary policy. While bond spreads... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update German politics: good intentions but challenges ahead This week’s coalition agreement sets the stage for a substantial fiscal stimulus which should eventually get Germany’s economy growing again. But the new government will have to deal with new... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Keep calm and carry on cutting Despite President Trump’s latest decision to pause the additional tariffs for 90 days, his farcical on-and-off tariff announcements will still have a big impact on the world economy. We are not... 10th April 2025 · 7 mins read
