Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone national inflation data (June 2026) The national HICP data for June suggest that euro-zone headline inflation fell from 3.2% in May to 2.8% in June. That would leave it below the ECB’s forecast, making it less likely that the Bank will... 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro to weaken further against the US dollar Moves in relative interest rates have contributed to the euro weakening against the US dollar since early May. We think that it will fall to around $1.10 by the end of the year as the Fed hikes twice... 30th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German pension reform encouraging, but will take time Germany’s pension reforms should slow the rise in public sector pension spending a little, encourage people to remain in work for longer, and channel more savings into equities. But the benefits of... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Bunds could leave Treasuries behind We expect the Treasury rally to run out of steam but think bunds could gain further, weighing on the euro. The yen may eventually fare better, though. 29th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy prices normalising; digital euro coming (in 2029) ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said this week the Bank would need to raise interest rates further, in part because energy prices were still “measurably higher” than before the Iran war... 26th June 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Key takeaways from our alternative assets roundtables This week we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for alternative real estate assets. This note shares our answers to some of the most... 25th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ fiscal policy moving from expansion to contraction Euro-zone governments look set to loosen fiscal policy by nearly half a percent of GDP this year, helping to cushion the blow to the economy from higher energy prices. But fiscal policy will be... 24th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook One and done for the ECB Provided that the deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz results in a sustained recovery in energy flows, the damage to economic activity in the euro-zone will prove to be mild and brief. Excluding... 23rd June 2026 · 25 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) The flash Composite PMI for June suggests that the impact of the Iran war on activity may now be easing and, perhaps more importantly, that the worst of the Iran-related inflationary pressures may... 23rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (June 2026) Consumer confidence improved again in June but the mood among households is still very gloomy. Consumer spending growth is likely to be very weak in Q2 before staging a gradual recovery in Q3 as real... 22nd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update No more ECB rate hikes? We have revised down our forecasts for oil and gas prices in light of developments in the Iran war and, as a result, are forecasting slightly lower inflation than we’d previously assumed. Our new base... 22nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower energy prices ease pressure on the ECB The decline in energy prices this week suggests that energy inflation in the euro-zone has already peaked. And with little evidence of second-round effects on wages, the chance of the ECB raising... 19th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Near-term downgrade to industrial, but long-term outlook solid Weak economic activity in the near term will push euro-zone industrial rental growth to its slowest pace in more than a decade this year. However, we expect rental growth to return to an above-average... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone inflation unlikely to rise much further May’s jump in services inflation was entirely due to Easter timing effects and higher jet fuel prices. Looking ahead, even if it takes some time for the flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz to... 17th June 2026 · 3 mins read
