Climate Economics Update The changing face of the global tourism market Somewhat paradoxically, climate-driven shifts in tourist patterns could help to smooth the seasonal peaks seen in summer destinations, and some countries – particularly in northern Europe – will... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Global economy to weather geopolitical headwinds We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be... 30th June 2025 · 45 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany, France, Italy & Spain Flash HICP (June) National data published so far suggest that both euro-zone headline and core inflation were little changed and close to 2% in June. That will please ECB officials, who we expect to cut rates one more... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania’s new government, Israel-Iran ceasefire The fiscal tightening measures announced by Romania’s new government, which took office this week, are a welcome development for investors, but we think the public debt ratio will stay on a sharp... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why we still predict Paris office rents to grow by more than the consensus Despite a sluggish economic backdrop and rising vacancy rates in the wider Paris office market, we continue to believe that prime office rental growth will be stronger than the consensus expects. This... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Stronger euro, 50% tariff looming The sustained appreciation of the euro will reduce headline euro-zone inflation slightly in the coming months and, at the margin, strengthens the case for a final interest rate cut in this cycle... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (June 2025) The ESI for June suggests that US tariffs may be starting to drag on euro-zone activity and that the economy remains weak. Meanwhile, Middle-east tensions do not appear to have raised perceived... 27th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Where do fiscal deficits need to shrink most? Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and most will find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal sustainability. The US and France have... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can Europe afford NATO targets? If it is implemented in full and funded through borrowing, the target for NATO members to raise defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 could push debt burdens up by 10% of GDP or more over the next... 25th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German budget: stimulus confirmed, deficit above 3% Germany’s budget plans for 2025-29 confirm that the much anticipated big fiscal stimulus is coming and leave us comfortable with our view that GDP growth will pick up significantly from next year and... 25th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (June 2025) The rise in the Ifo BCI in June suggests that activity in Germany has not yet been meaningfully hit by US tariffs. But output remains weak and we think a proper recovery will only materialise next... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Inflation at the target but growth will be weak The euro-zone’s strong first-quarter growth rate was a result of tariff front-running and will be reversed in Q2 and be followed by weak growth in the second half of the year. Further ahead, we think... 23rd June 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2025) June’s flash PMI survey for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy flat-lining. The recent jump in energy costs has not yet fed through to output prices, but the uncertainty created by the... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: EU is choosing Trump over China, retailers doing well When President Trump returned to office, his aggressive treatment of traditional allies raised the possibility that the EU and China would come together in defence of free trade. But it was clear this... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Middle-East conflict clouds ECB outlook Our base case remains that the Israel-Iran conflict eases, energy prices drop back and the ECB cuts rates one more time in this cycle. But if energy prices stay around their current levels further... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
