Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone policymakers in wait-and-see mode, for now While the spike in energy prices and recent inflation data have reduced the chances of rate cuts this year, we do not expect the ECB to pivot to rate hikes either, provided energy prices do not rise... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ GDP likely to keep rising despite energy shock Data published this morning showed that the euro-zone economy grew at a decent pace in Q4 last year. If the recent increase in energy prices is sustained, it will be a small drag on growth but not... 6th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) The jump in energy prices since the outbreak of the Iran conflict poses an upside risk to our inflation forecast and downside risk to our GDP forecast. However, even if prices remain at their current... 5th March 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update European office vacancy to stabilise this year A softening new supply pipeline and indications that demand is gradually improving suggest office vacancy in Europe should stabilise this year. That said, we expect that any falls will be small... 3rd March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (February 2026) February’s jump in core inflation, together with the increases in oil and gas prices since the weekend, reduce the chance of the ECB cutting interest rates this year. But as things stand, we don’t... 3rd March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest US tariffs, Germany’s recovery Following last week’s Supreme Court decision, we think policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic will aim to keep tariff rates close to the levels agreed last year. So our base case is that tariff... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ national inflation data (February) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation rose in February and that the core and services rate s were little changed. That is unlikely to change the ECBs... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (February 2026) February’s EC survey suggests that the economy is expanding at a decent pace and that price pressures in the services sectors are still fairly strong. But the labour market is still loosening. While... 26th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the German fiscal stimulus With Germany’s fiscal stimulus now beginning to show up in the data, we think the increase in defence and infrastructure spending may be even slower and smaller than we had assumed – but that may be... 24th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2026) Slightly lower prime property yields supported property values across most markets in 2025. However, we expect property yields to hold broadly steady this year and capital value growth to slow. 24th February 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (February 2026) Although the German Ifo remained quite weak in February, we still think economic conditions in Germany are improving. And for now at least, it seems mostly likely that the US Supreme Court ruling and... 23rd February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth slowing, what next for Lagarde? February's PMIs showed an increase in price pressures, but we suspect that this reflects higher oil prices as other indicators suggest that wage growth has continued to slow. We expect a further... 20th February 2026 · 7 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Are we too bearish on the euro-zone outlook? 26th February 2026, 3:00PM GMT Signs of life in the euro-zone economy have sparked hopes that a meaningful recovery may finally be underway. But our growth forecasts for this year and next remain below consensus.
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone flash PMIs (February) February’s flash PMIs support the view that activity in the euro-zone economy is growing at a reasonable pace, led by a pick-up in Germany, and that price pressures remain too high for the ECB to... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
