Europe Economics Weekly Effects of Iran conflict beginning to show up There were clear signs this week that the Iran conflict is causing inflation and inflation expectations to rise in the euro-zone. Next week we expect to learn that headline inflation jumped from 1.9%... 27th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (March 2026) The fall in the German Ifo BCI and the Composite PMI in March suggest that the renewed rise in energy prices could derail the tentative recovery in the German economy seen in recent months. We expect... 25th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Alternative real estate sectors set to gain more ground In an environment of relatively weak economic growth, alternative sectors stand to benefit from a lower reliance on cyclical drivers, and support from structural trends that will drive long-term... 24th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2026) March’s euro-zone PMI survey shows that higher energy costs are weighing on demand and causing input prices to rise rapidly. 24th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Assessing the China shock for the euro-zone The rise of China has brought both costs and benefits to the euro-zone over the past two decades, but policymakers are increasingly focusing on the costs. Indeed, euro-zone imports from China have... 23rd March 2026 (Updated 30th March 2026) · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes now the “base case” In light of this week’s further rise in energy prices and damage to Qatar’s energy infrastructure we have revised our euro-zone forecasts. In our new “base case” the ECB hikes rates three times this... 20th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising chance of ECB hikes in first half of the year Before ECB policymakers react to the rise in energy prices, they will wait for more clarity on the size and duration of the shock. There would be no need for a response if energy prices dropped back... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (March 2026) The ECB’s press release and updated forecasts suggest that policymakers think that the inflationary effects of higher energy prices will outweigh the disinflationary effects of weaker economic growth... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Affordability of renting vs buying a tailwind for rental demand The comparative affordability of renting versus owner-occupation is one factor that we expect to support rental demand across most European markets in the coming years, especially in the German... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily War and monetary policy, and what it means for markets Major central bank meetings this week will give investors an early sense of how monetary policymakers will respond to the war. We suspect there isn’t much good news in the offing for bonds. 16th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly How might governments respond to the energy shock? If oil and natural gas prices remain high, it seems very likely that governments will step in with some fiscal support. The scale of that support is uncertain, but even if energy prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to stress readiness to respond to energy shock The ECB is not going to respond to the jump in energy prices by raising interest rates next week. But we expect it to state that the upside risks to inflation have increased, implying that the chance... 12th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update German economy still weak despite fiscal loosening Even though fiscal policy in Germany is being loosened significantly, signs of a recovery in activity have been tentative at best. Our base case remains that activity will pick up this year but a... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update EZ property yields unlikely to spike if conflict in Iran is short-lived Providing the conflict in Iran is short-lived, the impact on euro-zone commercial property values is likely to be small. However, a more prolonged conflict would weigh on property demand, especially... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (January) The falls in German industrial production in January and December erased most of the recovery seen in the previous months and left output close to its post-pandemic low. With the current spike in... 9th March 2026 · 2 mins read
