Europe Economics Update EZ trade surplus down but exports won’t keep falling The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed sharply in June as exports to the US dropped. But timelier business surveys suggest that overall goods export growth will pick up in the second half of the... 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tourists adjusting timing of holidays but not location Despite concerns that over-crowding and heatwaves might reduce tourism to southern Europe, trips to the region are growing at a faster rate than in northern Europe. Instead, tourism has been growing... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump-Putin and the euro-zone economy We do not expect President Trump’s meeting with President Putin to make a breakthrough on the Ukraine conflict. But even if there is a "deal" in the coming months the implications for the wider... 15th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish industrial rent outlook solid, but little room for yield falls The solid pace of economic growth in Spain over the next couple of years will continue to support robust rates of industrial rental growth. However, we don’t think that will be enough to justify large... 14th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response GDP second estimate, Employment (Q2) and IP (June) Data released today confirm that the euro-zone economy expanded at only a modest pace in Q2 and that the labour market is cooling. We are forecasting a temporary pick-up in growth next year as a... 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Global CRE needs a reset for real recovery to take hold With interest rates staying high and closed-end funds already sitting on a large volume of investors’ capital, global real estate fundraising looks set to stay in the doldrums. We think the sector... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus “Euro safe assets” are a pipe dream Policymakers’ hopes of creating a new euro “safe asset” are likely to be unfulfilled for many years to come. The supply of safe bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions will rise in... 12th August 2025 · 14 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian prime retail benefits from strong tourism Solid tourism flows and a pick-up in consumer spending growth mean we believe both Rome and Milan prime retail rents will continue to outpace the euro-zone average over the next couple of years. 12th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update On the severed bond between Swiss and German bonds We expect the Switzerland-Germany 10-year government bond yield spread to widen a little further, even though it’s already the largest it has been in about three decades. 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: More US tariff threats; construction sector Provided it stands the test of time, the deal agreed between the US and EU means that the bloc should be exempt from the 100% tariff that President Trump has threatened on semiconductor imports, as... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update US tariffs just one of German carmakers’ problems German carmakers’ recent disappointing earnings reports are as much about their continued struggles in China as US tariffs. And though sales in Europe have been more encouraging recently, that is... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (June) The sharp drop in German industrial production in June and the big downward revision to the figures for May mean that, rather than holding up well in the face of tariffs as the data previously... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2025) Euro-zone retail sales edged up in June but remained slightly below the peak reached early in the pandemic and well below the pre-pandemic trend. Looking forward, we expect spending growth to remain... 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Tariff news drives oil and metals prices in opposite directions Tariff news buffeted commodity prices this week, as the threat of secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy raised the oil price risk premium but exemptions to copper tariffs brought prices off... 1st August 2025 · 4 mins read
