Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (August) Euro-zone GDP expanded steadily in Q2 as higher energy prices had little impact on household consumption or business activity. The strength of July’s business and consumer surveys suggests that the... 6th August 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2026) Even though retail sales declined in June, they rose by 0.2% q/q in the second quarter, indicating that higher energy prices didn’t have much of an effect on household consumption. With consumer... 6th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2026) Commercial property valuations improved in Q2 as alternative asset yields fell and property yields edged slightly higher. While rises in government bond yields so far in Q3 will be a drag, we expect... 5th August 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Who is most exposed to an AI earnings bust? An AI earnings bust need not be synonymous with a macroeconomic bust. Some scenarios – such as falling AI prices or higher input costs – would mainly redistribute income between AI producers and users... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany: upward revisions but still looking sickly Revisions to Germany’s GDP data suggest that the economy did a little better than previously thought since 2024. But it has still been the clear “sick man of Europe” in the 2020s and its long term... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (July 2026) The small increase in headline inflation in July was largely due to higher energy inflation and is unlikely to change policymakers’ thinking significantly ahead of the ECB’s September policy meeting. 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Little macroeconomic impact of horrendous wildfires The wildfires that have been raging in France and Spain have already had a devastating effect on many businesses and there may be worse to come. However, their aggregate impact on GDP and the... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2026) The continued steady growth of the euro-zone economy in Q2 shows that households and businesses have not pared back their spending much due to the Iran war. We think the economy will continue growing... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2026) National data released so far suggest that activity in the euro-zone held up quite well in the second quarter, with GDP in the euro-zone excluding Ireland probably rising by 0.2% q/q . We suspect it... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Are indirect effects just around the corner? The indirect effects of higher energy prices on inflation have so far been absent, but they could start to emerge in the second half of the year if energy prices remain high or rise further. That... 24th July 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2026) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in July suggests that activity is rebounding and that inflationary pressures are easing. But given the re-escalation in the conflict in the Middle East and the... 24th July 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB on pause but chance of another hike is rising The ECB left interest rates unchanged today and gave nothing away about its intentions for the next meeting in September. Based on our forecast for energy prices to fall significantly in the coming... 23rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2026) The ECB’s decision to leave its policy rates unchanged was no surprise, and the press release gives no clear signal about the Bank’s next move. If energy prices drop back in the coming months as we... 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone banks might be overdoing the pessimism The ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) was quite downbeat, but we suspect that both bank lending and GDP growth will continue to be stronger than this survey implies. This would be consistent with the... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Re-escalating war & AI scepticism a tricky mix for equities The return to war in the Strait of Hormuz may start to weigh more heavily on financial markets before too long, especially if even strong tech earnings reports continue to be met with scepticism. And... 20th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Indirect effects of energy prices still absent The rise in energy prices this month means that, rather than falling in July as seemed likely a fortnight ago, euro-zone inflation now looks set to remain unchanged at 2.8%. But the absence so far of... 17th July 2026 · 3 mins read
