Europe Commercial Property Update Is German retail making a comeback? German retail performance has been among the worst in the euro-zone for most of the last decade. A combination of declining vacancy, better affordability and reduced online leakage point to a relative... 16th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone disinflation remains on track March’s decline in services inflation was entirely due to transport, which in turn reflected past moves in oil prices and Easter timing effects. But the fundamentals still point to continued declines... 16th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update European Union reluctant to retaliate Although the EU is likely to respond to US tariffs at some point, recent developments reinforce our view that it will move slowly and that any retaliation will be moderate. This should limit the... 15th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (February 2025) The increase in euro-zone industrial production for a second consecutive month in February is not a sign of a sustained recovery for the sector. Instead, it is partly due to manufacturers ramping up... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ bank lending in decent shape before US tariff shock The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey paints a positive picture of the housing market. Conditions for consumer credit and corporate loans were less encouraging, and the tariff chaos of the past two weeks... 15th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: The fallout from tariff mayhem in EZ markets This week’s historic changes in US trade policy and the associated market fallout point in the direction of a weaker euro-zone economy, lower inflation and looser monetary policy. While bond spreads... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update German politics: good intentions but challenges ahead This week’s coalition agreement sets the stage for a substantial fiscal stimulus which should eventually get Germany’s economy growing again. But the new government will have to deal with new... 11th April 2025 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Keep calm and carry on cutting Despite President Trump’s latest decision to pause the additional tariffs for 90 days, his farcical on-and-off tariff announcements will still have a big impact on the world economy. We are not... 10th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Trump tariffs to drag on German industrial leasing Trump’s tariffs have darkened the outlook for industrial demand across Europe, but Germany looks more exposed than most. Even if the paused 20% reciprocal tariff on EU imports is not reinstated, the... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Trade war will be disinflationary for the euro-zone Despite the 90-day pause to the US’s “reciprocal” tariff regime, ECB policymakers will still need to assess the impact of higher US tariffs for euro-zone inflation. Some have argued that tariffs could... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Event Drop-In: European growth risks rise – How will the ECB respond? 1744900200 The ECB’s April meeting comes amid falling inflation – but also rising global risks, not least the potential growth shock from Trump’s aggressive tariffs.
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (February 2025) Euro-zone retail sales rose in February for the first time since September last year, and we expect consumer spending to grow at a modest pace over the coming months. But higher US tariffs and the... 7th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (February) The fall in German industrial production in February left it very weak. With US demand generating around 7% of German manufacturing value added, the sector will be hit hard by US tariffs. And higher... 7th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Tariffs will put a big dent in the CEE recovery If the US tariffs on imports from the EU announced this week are kept in place, our current assessment is that this will lower GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by 0.3-0.4%-pts on... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
