Global Economics Focus The causes of fiscal crises and their economic impact History shows that there are no debt or deficit thresholds beyond which a fiscal crisis is inevitable. Rather, crises stem from a mix of high debt, poor debt dynamics, and weak fiscal credibility... 24th July 2025 · 26 mins read
Capital Daily ECB in “a good place”, how about euro-zone markets? The ECB has left rates unchanged and, with inflation at target, we now suspect its monetary easing cycle is over. So bond yields are unlikely in our view to fall much, particularly at the short end... 24th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB now likely to leave rates unchanged With the euro-zone economy holding up relatively well in the face of tariff uncertainty, inflation likely to stay close to the target and President Lagarde adopting a slightly more hawkish stance at... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Global CRE to outperform other assets Although a forecast global real estate return of sub-6% p.a. over the next decade appears disappointing, compared to other assets it stacks up well. We expect sub-4% total returns for both global... 24th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (July 2025) The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was in line with expectations. While we are currently forecasting one more 25bp rate... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2025) July’s Composite PMI for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy doing little more than stagnate. But policymakers at the ECB will be encouraged by the evidence that services price pressures are... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Improving CRE lending outlook unlikely to boost investment Recent surveys of real estate lenders point to a continued improvement in the European commercial real estate lending environment. However, with refinancing still dominating lending activity, this is... 23rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone spreads: beyond “core” and “periphery” Government bond yields in the euro-zone are converging, and we expect the “peripheral” frontier to keep blurring. 22nd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2 2025) The Q2 Bank Lending Survey, published this morning by the ECB, suggests that the economy is still growing at a decent pace. But this is entirely due to improving prospects for the housing sector. The... 22nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update French borrowing costs may soon exceed Italy’s We think France’s government borrowing costs will rise above those of Italy before long. This may seem surprising in light of Italy’s higher debt burden and lower trend growth rate, but it reflects... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Netherlands prime office rent performance to slow Low vacancy and limited new completions this year will see Rotterdam rent growth continue to outperform Amsterdam over 2025, before supply picks up substantially in 2026. That will bring rent growth... 18th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Politics holding back banking union Regulators will be pleased with the increase in the number of takeover bids in the European banking sector over the past couple of years as they would like the EU to have fewer but larger and more... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trade data resilient despite difficult negotiations Trade data released this week suggest that exports from the EU and Switzerland have been quite resilient since the US imposed a 10% tariff on most products in April. Meanwhile, despite an increase in... 18th July 2025 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: A pause, or an end, to the easing cycle The ECB looks set to leave rates unchanged at next week’s monetary policy meeting and the rate cut that we have pencilled in for September is far from a done deal. Inflation is back down to the ECB’s... 17th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone core inflation to creep down in H2 Headline inflation in the euro-zone was at the 2% target in June, with the core rate a little higher. We forecast core inflation to decline to 2% by the end of the year, and if oil prices fall as we... 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
