ECB Watch ECB Watch: Deliberately informative The account of July’s ECB meeting revealed that Christine Lagarde’s messaging in the press conference was “deliberately uninformative about future interest rate decisions”. We set ourselves a slightly... 4th September 2025 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Parsing the long-end bond sell off As long-end government bond yields continue to rise, identifying the culprit for the latest sell-off becomes ever more pressing. 2nd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big a risk is contagion from France? Contagion from France’s government bond market to the rest of the euro-zone will probably be muted and short-lived unless France’s own crisis becomes much bigger than we expect. This is partly because... 2nd September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Worse to come for Swiss GDP, French yields to rise While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal... 29th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (August 2025) August’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission adds to the impression that the damage from higher US tariffs has been limited. Nevertheless, economic growth remains sluggish. 28th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone prime recovery to date like the GFC, but different Solid rental growth has meant the recovery in euro-zone prime property values to date has matched the post-GFC period despite a more limited contribution from yield falls. A softer rental outlook... 28th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the UK (or France) heading for an IMF bail-out? The UK’s fiscal and balance of payments position may be far from a picture of health but speculation that it may be forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout is far-fetched. The risks are greater for... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update French PM's gambit will not end budget stalemate The French prime minister’s decision to call an early vote of confidence is most likely to trigger his replacement with yet another prime minister or (less likely) fresh legislative elections. Either... 26th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Question marks over recovery, small progress on trade Economic data released this week cast some doubt on our forecast that euro-zone GDP growth will accelerate in the latter part of this year. Meanwhile, the EU-US joint statement on trade, also released... 22nd August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth will fall further this year The sharp rise in euro-zone negotiated wage growth to 4.0% in Q2 was entirely due to base effects. In the coming quarters the labour market should continue cooling, causing negotiated wage growth (and... 22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone core inflation to fall to 2% by December July’s increase in core goods inflation in the euro-zone looks like a one-off, whereas services inflation is likely to keep falling. We forecast core inflation to fall from 2.3% in July to 2.0% by... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Battery demand powers China’s green exports Despite signs of weakness in the broader trade data, China’s New Three export volumes reached a record high in July. This was mainly driven by a rise in exports of lithium-ion batteries. And while... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2025) Tariff uncertainty weighed on investment and industrial property in particular in Q2. However, we don’t expect much recovery in H2 as long-term interest rates rise and economic growth softens. Indeed... 20th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q3 2025) Commercial property valuations improved in Q2 this year as alternative asset yields fell even though prime property yields edged slightly lower. Looking ahead, we think government bond yields will... 18th August 2025 · 0 mins read
