The larger-than-expected fall in euro-zone activity surveys in April challenges our view that the hit from the Iran war will be small. But the surveys have not always been a good guide to actual activity and we still think that, provided energy prices don’t rise a lot further, the euro-zone will avoid a recession. Next, week the ECB is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. We also expect to learn that headline inflation rose to just under 3% in April.
We will be hosting an Online Drop-In on the latest decisions from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England at 3pm (BST) on Thursday 30th April. (Please register here.)
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